Opta Predicts Arsenal v Newcastle: Back Magpies to prevail in 72/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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With the battle for the Champions League places hotting up ahead of the final two Premier League matches this season, the football gods have blessed us with a second v third clash as Arsenal take on Newcastle United.

So, let's get into it and find a bit of value from the Opta data.

Newcastle the value pick

Having been in a Premier League title fight while progressing to the semi-finals of the Champions League, Arsenal now find themselves out of Europe and still needing two points from their final two matches to make absolutely sure of a top-five spot.

But hey Gunners fans, at least you still have something to play for... you're still thinking about the bad news, aren't you?

Of the four unconfirmed Champions League spots to claim, any team from second-placed Arsenal to seventh-placed Nottingham Forest could still be caught out when the music stops on final day.

But before those from an Arsenal persuasion hit the panic button, it's worth pointing out that the Opta supercomputer pegs them with a 99.88% likelihood of finishing inside the top five. Third-placed Newcastle, meanwhile, aren't far behind with a top-five probability 95.2%, according to the supercomputer.

A dodgy result in this match, though, could see either of those percentages drop dramatically given the lack of remaining games and the fact it gives those around these teams a guaranteed opportunity to make up ground.

From a betting perspective, we absolutely have to be chasing the Newcastle win here at 11/4.

At this stage, it's important to point out that Arsenal are obviously capable of getting the three points here, but the supercomputer match simulations have not produced a win probability of above 50% for either team and from a value perspective there is only one way to go.

The Gunners are coming into this match in their worst form of the season, having drawn two and lost three matches in a five-game winless run in all competitions - their longest such sequence since going six without victory in January 2022.

Their four-game winless run at the Emirates Stadium also represents their worst period at home since going six matches without a win in March 2021. While Arsenal have won 10 of their 18 home games so far, their run of just three victories in their last eight home league games has seen them drop to sixth in the home league table.

It's not ideal form to be coming into a game that you could really use a result in and, worse yet, recent history is not with the Gunners. They have faced Newcastle on three occasions in all competitions this season and lost all three matches, including a 2-0 defeat at the Emirates in the EFL Cup semi-final first leg in January.

Eddie Howe's side followed that with a 2-0 win at St James' Park the following month to wrap up a 4-0 aggregate victory, while a 12th-minute Alexander Isak goal also gave them a 1-0 home win in the league in November. The Magpies can now become the first team ever to beat the Gunners four times in a single campaign.

Arsenal have, in fact, managed to win just two of their last eight meetings against Newcastle in all competitions. Having won five of their last eight games against the Gunners, another victory for the Magpies here would beat the total number of wins from their previous 52 clashes combined against their hosts.

The visitors are undoubtedly the form side out of the two as well, having won eight of their last 10 matches in all competitions, losing just one. Newcastle have taken 25 points from their last 11 Premier League games (W8 D1 L2), while they are also second in the 10-match form table, behind only Aston Villa. In their last 11 league games, Arsenal have won just three times and are ninth in the same form table.

Within that sequence of results, Newcastle's only defeats have come away to Premier League champions Liverpool in February and at the Premier League's form team Aston Villa last month. While the double chance market is also appealing at 8/11, it's the straight away win we're going for.

Arsenal to flounder going forward

What is striking about Arsenal is that, despite being second in the table, they rank seventh for expected goals (xG) (56), fourth for goals (64), fifth for shots (496) and equal-sixth for shots on target (169).

Their underperformance is unsurprising given that they have been without a recognised striker since Kai Havertz's injury in February, making do with Mikel Merino instead. The fact that the Gunners do rank third for goal-to-xG ratio, outscoring their expected goals by eight, suggests that, while they are blessed with players who can finish difficult chances, they struggle to exert control in the final third.

Things aren't likely to get any easier here, given that Merino - Arsenal's top scorer since Havertz's injury with seven goals in all competitions - will be serving a one-match suspension, and no other player has scored more than five.

So, based on the statistics above a bet on BTTS: No doesn't seem outlandish at 13/10, especially when you consider that Newcastle have already kept three clean sheets against Arsenal this season. Under 0.5 home goals also looks tasty at 4/1, while a Newcastle win to nil is available at 6/1.

More assists for Murphy

Jacob Murphy has been one of the main protagonists of Newcastle's impressive form since December and currently ranks second in the Premier League behind only Mohamed Salah for assists with 12.

Murphy ticked over to 12 assists after setting up Sandro Tonali's second-minute opener in Newcastle's 2-0 victory over Chelsea last weekend. He is now only three assists behind Nolberto Solano's Premier League assist record for the club from the 1999-00 campaign. He is 5/1 to get another one here.

Murphy also ranks third among the Newcastle squad for goals scored, having netted eight times in the Premier League this season. He is 4/1 to get his ninth league goal, while the score or assist hedge is 12/5.

It's also hard to ignore 23-goal Isak when he is as long as 17/10. But the real value elsewhere is with Harvey Barnes, who is Newcastle's second-highest scorer on nine for the season, at 7/2. He has had at least three shots on six of his last nine Premier League appearances, including 11 across his three most recent matches. He is 7/5 to take three or more shots at the Emirates Stadium, having registered four at home to Chelsea last weekend.