Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets for the weekend including a 19/1 Spurs comeback | OneFootball

English Premier League

It's set to get worse before it gets better for Ange

Ste Tudor has picked out the best Opta stats to create 10 belting bets for the weekend's full Premier League card. Brace yourselves Hammers fans.

Betfair Football Superboost

Back Matheus Cunha to have one or more shots on the target when Wolverhampton Wanderers travel to Bournemouth on Saturday at the super-boosted price of 1/1 from 1/2.

The Cherries are 12 places above Wolves in the Premier League but the Brazilian has been a big threat for the visitors all season, with 14 shots on target in his last six matches. With 30 this season, Cunha is in the top five players in the Premier League for shots on target and averages 1.5 every 90 minutes.

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MD26 offers up some cracking clashes, not least Man United heading to Goodison in full-on crisis mode and Liverpool traveling to the Etihad. Not sure how these marquee match-ups will play out? Opta is here to help.

Leicester v Brentford - (Friday 20:00)

Early gains for Bees

The Opta stat:"Leicester have scored fewer first half goals in terms of total (7) and percentage (28%) than any other Premier League side this season. Indeed, no side has been ahead at half-time in fewer games than the Foxes this term (3)."

The Betfair Bet: Back Brentford to be ahead at the break at 6/4

Saturday's Premier League games

Everton v Man United - (12:30)

Reds toothless again

The Opta stat:

"Only bottom side Southampton (7.9%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Manchester United in the Premier League this season, with the Red Devils' 8.4% their lowest in a single campaign since 2004-05 (8.2%)."

Bournemouth v Wolves - (15:00)

Dango among the goals

The Opta stat:

"Bournemouth's Dango Ouattara has been involved in nine goals in his last 11 Premier League games (6 goals, 3 assists), as many as in his first 60 appearances in the competition (3 goals, 6 assists)."

Arsenal v West Ham - (15:00)

Keeping up tradition

The Opta stat:

"Arsenal have won 37 Premier League games against West Ham - they've only beaten Everton (38) more often in the competition, while it's the most defeats the Hammers have suffered against a side."

"Arsenal have won 6-0 and 5-2 in their last two Premier League meetings with West Ham - the only team to score 5+ goals in three consecutive games against an opponent in the competition are Liverpool (vs Norwich between 2012 and 2013)."

Back Goals Range - Home 5+ at 8/1

Fulham v Crystal Palace - (15:00)

Mateta to make history

The Opta stat:

"Jean-Philippe Mateta has scored in his last three Premier League away games - no Crystal Palace player has ever scored in four in a row on the road in the competition."

Back Mateta to score at 13/5

Ipswich v Tottenham - (15:00)

Half-time, full-time bet tempts

The Opta stat:

"Only Everton (63%) have scored a higher share of their Premier League goals this season in the first half of games than Ipswich (61% - 14/23). Meanwhile, Tottenham have conceded a higher share of their goals in the opening 45 minutes than any other side (57% - 21/37)."

"Ipswich remain the only side without a win in the Premier League so far in 2025, drawing two and losing four of their six games. They last had a longer run without a league victory from the start of a calendar year in 1990 (8 games)."

Back Ipswich/Tottenham at 19/1

Southampton v Brighton - (15:00)

One-sided affair

The Opta stat:

"Southampton have lost each of their last seven Premier League home games, conceding at least three goals in six of these. The only sides to lose 8+ in a row at home within a single campaign are Watford (11 in 2021-22), Wolves (9 in 2011-12) and Sunderland (8 in 2002-03)."

Aston Villa v Chelsea - (17:30)

Goal-shy Blues

The Opta stats:"Chelsea have scored just two goals in their last five Premier League away matches (D2 L3), having scored nine in their two away games before this run (5-1 vs Southampton, 4-3 vs Spurs). In these last five away games, the Blues have underperformed their expected goals by 4.8 (2 goals, 6.8 xG)."

"Since the start of the 2022-23 campaign, only Wolves' Nélson Semedo (29) has received more Premier League yellow cards than Moisés Caicedo (28), with the Chelsea midfielder receiving a booking in three of his last four appearances."

Back Caicedo to be carded and no to BTTS at 6/1

Sunday's Premier League games

Newcastle v Nottingham Forest - (14:00)

Shots facedThe Opta stat:

"Nottingham Forest sit third in the Premier League, although they have faced more shots (342) than they'd had themselves (318). On record since 2003-04, only two sides have finished in the top-four positions when they've had a negative differential between shots taken and faced - Everton in 2004-05 (faced 142 more) and Spurs in 2021-22 (faced 1 more)."

Man City v Liverpool - (16:30)

Salah to star

The Opta stat:

"Liverpool's Mohamed Salah has been involved in more Premier League goals against Pep Guardiola's Man City (since 2016-17) than any other player (13 - 8 goals, 5 assists). In fact, only Steven Gerrard (14) has been involved in more against the Citizens in the competition's history (4 goals, 10 assists)."

Now read Jack Critchley's Championship tips here

Recommended bets

Back Man United under 0.5 goals @ 15/8

Back Ouattara to score or assist @ 1/1

Back Brighton/Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10

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