Premier League Tips: Jones Knows' Notebook says back Fulham at 50/1 for top-four | OneFootball

English Premier League

Marco Silva's Fulham are 50/1 for top-four finish

The international break has triggered Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - to add some bets to to his ante post portfolio and he's concluded that Fulham are this season's Premier League dark horses. They should be backed to sustain their impressive early season form...

Fulham are the Premier League dark horses

All the talk before this weekend had been surrounding Nottingham Forest being the Premier League surprise package.

Could they challenge for Europe? Could they even challenge for the title? Blah, blah.

All that sounds a little fanciful now after their defeat at home to Newcastle but whilst all this love for Forest was happening my brain was screaming at me, telling me the masses have got the dark horse wrong.

It's the team that - before Newcastle - were the only side to actually beat Nottingham Forest this season.

That team is Fulham, who could be onto something special based on their early season performances.

And their showing this weekend at Crystal Palace only further grew my belief that we might just be dealing with a progressive, talented and well-drilled side capable of gatecrashing the party towards the top end of the Premier League.

No (Joao) Palhinha, no problem

Marco Silva's side have surprised me in the way they've adapted without Joao Palhinha - they somehow look a better team this season without him. It's a remarkable feat achieved by Silva.

But that's what he does - gets the best out of the players at his disposal. He is richly underrated.

Fulham have taken a bulky 18 points from their 11 Premier League games.

They are one just point behind both Arsenal and Chelsea.

However, when you dig a little deeper into the underlying numbers, their performances suggest they should be even higher in the league standings. According to Opta's Expected Points model, Fulham should actually be third in the Premier League rather than seventh.

And that hefty position according to that data stems from the fact they've won the expected goals battle in their last 12 matches across all competitions, including in defeats at Manchester City and Aston Villa.

Not only are the expected goals and points projections very positive, digging a bit deeper into the amount of attacks Fulham are putting together showcases a very sunny outlook.

They rank third for total attacking entries per game (78) - which combines both entries into the final third and the penalty area. Only Tottenham (101) and Manchester City (112) are creating more.

This shows their build-up with the ball is working very efficiently and the patterns of play being implemented by Silva are causing the opposition lots of problems.

And even when you flip those statistics to a defensive standpoint, Fulham are excellent at restricting teams on their goal. Again, only Manchester City and Tottenham are allowing fewer penalty box entries per game than Fulham (16.2).

All this evidence shows that Silva's men are putting in consistent performance levels, are restricting teams with their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end. If you sustain that mantra over the course of a season, you are going to rack up a fair points haul and challenge towards the top end of the standings.

What is the betting angle to exploit?

Well, firstly, when plotting your way through the next few weekend Premier League cards please do give upmost respect to Fulham's win chances.

I'm not sure the market is quite aligned on the level this team is performing at.

For example, they went off 2.68 to win at Everton a couple of weeks ago - a game they dominated and only were denied victory from in stoppage time.

Yes, that price didn't land but based on all the key match domination data, Fulham played more like a team that should've been going off near 1/1 to beat Everton. And those that have backed them in their last two games - 1.98 vs Brentford and 2.36 at Palace - have copped some nice returns at prices that now look far too bulky in hindsight.

The markets might just be sleeping still on Silva's men.

And whilst it sleeps, we should make our moves.

Ladder up the Outright chances on Silva's men

That is certainly the case in the outright markets where Fulham, despite being just one point off third place and bettering those teams above them with their overall process, have tempted me in.

I'm happy to back them across all the three major outright markets where to my maths, prices are simply too generous.

For starters, the 13/8 on them to finish in the top half should be odds-on, no?

There are probably eight locks for the top-eight places so even worse case scenario, Fulham have already shown solid evidence that they are a better functioning team Brentford and Bournemouth whilst there wouldn't be too much between them and Brighton in a game at a neutral venue on current form.

And that's all not including the chances that the likes of Manchester United, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Tottenham all could go through more wobbly periods this season whilst they negotiate all sorts of challenges.

But we shouldn't just stop there. If there's value to be had at the shorter prices then usually it's worth following in the dreamier prices too.

And I've had a bit of both the 9/1 for Fulham to finish in the top-six and the completely disrespectful 50/1 for a top-four finish.

Sustaining their current form and flow will be challenging but with no European football to contend with, when the fixture list hots up for others and the injuries mount, Fulham will have an advantageous edge over their rivals.

Back them now before they become the trendy, talked about dark horses. It's Wolves at home next for them after the international break.

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