Best Bets and Sportsbook Picks for MLS Matchday 3 | OneFootball

Match- Atlanta United host Red Bull NY

This first match on my ticket holds some significance.  For a long time, if you’d have asked me, I would have told you that Atlanta United is RBNY’s biggest rival.  It all goes back to the 2018 Conference Finals, the year the Red Bulls won the Supporter’s Shield and seemed destined to finally win MLS Cup.  Atlanta stood in their way, and I still see Josef Martinez as the biggest villain in RBNY history.

My first particular area of interest is how the Red Bulls’ defense will match up against Latte Lath.  Can he produce in the air against the proven aerial defender Sean Nealis and the new big man Alexander Hack? My guess would be no.

The next area of interest for me is Atlanta’s weakest position- their right back.  On RBNY, Emil Forsberg has been pushing wide left from the 10 spot, and scored on Andy Najar last week when they played Nashville.  With Brooks Lennon out, Matt Edwards could be in for a rough night.

Pick- Red Bulls or Draw & Over 1.5 Goals +105

The Red Bulls have 10 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses to Atlanta United historically, and last year was the first time Atlanta won the season series (with 1 draw and 1 win).  I think Red Bull have a big chance to right the ship this week and bring home a win.  If not, I think a tie would be just as likely. The first part of this play will Red Bulls on the double chance.

This matchup has also seen goals over the past few seasons; the over of 2.5 goals hit in 5 of their last 6 meetings. Looking at the alternate total of over 1.5 goals, it has hit in 3 of their 4 combined matches this season, with RBNY’s 1-0 loss at Cincinnati being the only exception.  My second part of this bet will include an over of 1.5 goals.

Red Bull on the double chance parlayed with an alternate total of over 1.5 goals is now at +105, and any time I can root for my favorite team against a rival makes the weekend more interesting.

Match- DC United host Sporting KC

So far on the young season, DC United have two 2-2 draws.  The first, against Toronto FC, had some missed opportunities and ended in a draw after TFC’s Federico Bernardeschi converted on a 70th minute penalty.  The other, a 2-2 draw at Chicago, saw DC miss out on 3 points when Christian Benteke skied his own penalty in stoppage time.  DC will be hungry to get their first home win of the season after some bad luck robbed them of a few points early this season.

Meanwhile, Sporting KC has played 4 matches this season between MLS and CONCACAF.  They are 0-4 with 2 goals scored and 7 goals conceded.  They head into unfamiliar territory at the Nation’s Capitol, where they haven’t played since 2019.

Pick- DC United -112

In a bubble, I would take the home team to win in this match.  I think DC United are the better team, and getting them at -112 requires no further explanation.

Match- New England Revolution host the Philadelphia Union

With Jim Curtain’s dismissal and Bradley Carnell’s addition, the narrow 4-1-2-1-2 that the Union employ is looking turbocharged. To some, the Philadelphia Union scoring 4 goals in each of their first two matches comes as a surprise.  However, the trend of finding the back of the net is a continuation from 2024. The Union scored 25 goals in their last 11 games in 2024 (2.27 goals per game) and 62 times throughout the season.  That puts them one goal above LAFC and three above Orlando, both of which were considered top offenses in 2024.

On the other side, New England are 0-1-1 on the short season, but have only conceded once, at home, to the Columbus Crew.  I think this number is a bit skewed; they only played the hapless Nashville SC offense and a Crew team without their two best (now former) attackers.  I think New England will be an average-at-best defense, and could get blasted by the Union this week. (Note also- Revs GK Aljaz Ivacic injured his finger last match.  He may be unavailable.)

Pick- Philadelphia Union Team Total Over 1.5 +120

In their previous two matchups, the Philadelphia Union won 3-0 and 5-1.  However, as Philadelphia’s defense was weak last season and has already allowed 3 goals, I did not want to pick a winner.  This week, my pick will be on the Union scoring two or more goals, which they have proven they can do against the Revs.  The official play is on the team total of over 1.5 goals at +120 odds.

Match- LA Galaxy host St. Louis City

The LA Galaxy already surpassed their 2024 home loss total (zero) with a loss week 1 against San Diego FC.  This week the Galaxy host St. Louis City, who are fresh off a 0-0 draw against that same San Diego team in SDFC’s home opener.  It is rare we see such parallelism this early in the MLS season, so I’m looking to take advantage of some good early play from St. Louis and some early struggles by the LA Galaxy.

Playing without Jeremy Paintsil and Riqui Puig has had a negative effect on the LA Galaxy offense; they have just one goal and 1.3 xG over their first two matches.  St. Louis City, comparatively, has a 2.0 xG and two 0-0 draws.  While they haven’t scored yet, their tape has shown impressive defensive performances.

In their last match, St. Louis conceded 66% of possession and 16 shots, but allowed only 1 shot on target while allowing 36 touches inside their own penalty area.  They were compact, using the 5 man backline to bunker in a way you could only expect of Olof Mellberg, a former Premier League defender, whom I wonder if will bring the European “draw away” tactic to MLS.

Pick- St. Louis City or Draw +125

I like the draw best, but the draw or the St. Louis City win, on the double chance, is plus money at +125.  This seems like a good bet, and we will be watching Sunday in prime time to see if the LA Galaxy have any new ideas to break down the St. Louis City defense.