Chelsea v Newcastle: Back the home side to come out on top | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back to preview Chelsea v Newcastle on Super Sunday

Odds compiler and Football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is here to preview Chelsea v Newcastle United in the Premier League on Super Sunday...

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Chelsea v Newcastle United (Sun, 14:00)

Things finally seem to be clicking for Chelsea since their takeover in May-2022. Who'd have thought giving all these expensive signings time to settle in would eventually work?

They've won nine of their last 13 Premier League games and going further back since Christmas, it's P28 W16 D7 L5 with four of those five defeats coming against 'the big three' in Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Actually if you remove last seasons top three, it makes for even more impressive reading of P23 W16 D6 L1 with a win success rate of 70%. Excluding Man City, they've won 11 of their last 15 home games (73%), scoring 40 goals.

Obviously the star of the show is Cole Palmer with 28 goals and 16 assists since he joined Chelsea but Nicolas Jackson seems to have settled now and he has 19 goals and eight assists with Noni Madueke also contributing with nine goals in 20 starts.

Defensively Moises Caicedo has stepped up and is making the fourth most tackles this season at 3.5 per-game, whilst Levi Colwill and Wesley Fofana seem to be forming a good partnership at centre-back with them both in the top 30 for clearances this season, making over 3.5 per-game.

Even if things aren't going well, they still have the quality of Christopher Nkunku, Pedro Neto, Joao Felix, Mykhailo Mudryk and Jadon Sancho to come on and change the game.

Ninth place Newcastle have made a rather ordinary start to the season with a return of W3 D3 L2 despite six of their eight games coming against last seasons bottom half or a newly promoted side. They've scored just eight goals in as many games and expected points actually has them ranked in 13th.

They've only conceded eight goals but after Leicester they are the biggest overachievers defensively giving up over six more expected goals. This in no small part to Nick Pope who ranks 2nd for Post Shot xG at +3.9 which measures how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot, thus attributing him to preventing nearly four more goals.

However, his figures for the last three seasons read +0.8, +0.3, -1.7 so expect this seasons +3.9 to regress back to the mean at some point and Newcastle to concede more goals.

Outside of Man City, this is the biggest price Chelsea have been at home this season and Newcastle can easily be opposed.

They are conceding the 5th most shots per-game this season at 15.4 per-game and are not controlling games having less than 50% possession with Chelsea seeing 55.9% in-comparison. Historically Newcastle have struggled at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea being undefeated in their last 14 home matches against them in all competitions.

Column P/L 2024/25

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Back 1pt Chelsea to beat Newcastle @ 1.82