La Liga Tips: Back Leganes to survive 2+ handicap against surging Barcelona | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Leganes have already beaten an impressive Barcelona once this season

The title race continues apace in La Liga on MD31, where Jamie Kemp thinks Leganes can make life difficult for Barcelona (even if they can't pick up a definitive result)...

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Real Sociedad v Mallorca - Sat, 13:00

It's two wins from two for Real Sociedad in La Liga, who, since their elimination from the Europa League at the hands of Manchester United, really should start to pick up their domestic form with a lighter schedule. Not to mention, there's no Copa del Rey final on the horizon after being eliminated by Real Madrid from that one recently.

La Real have work to do, as well, if they're aiming to be back in European football next season. Real Betis's surging form is going to make qualifying for the Champions League difficult at this stage, but the Europa League should still be attainable if they can find some consistency down this final stretch of the campaign.

Up next for them is Mallorca; one of La Liga's tougher cookies. They're not always entertaining, but they are hard to beat. In fact, you could say the same for Real Sociedad, which tells us a lot about what we might be about to see on Saturday.

Going into the weekend, Real Sociedad (62) and Mallorca (66) represent two of the three sides whose games have seen the fewest goals scored in La Liga this season, only behind Getafe (55). It's a product of two teams who are excellent on the defensive end, but struggle to find much daylight on the scoreboard through their attacking work.

Indeed, it's the same case if we look solely at first halves in La Liga this term. The same three sides are bottom of the charts for goals scored in the first half of their matches, with only Getafe (24) seeing fewer scored than both Real Sociedad (25) and Mallorca (25).

I expect Jagoba Arrasate's side to keep this tight for a while, but a refreshed version of La Real should now have what it takes to make their breakthrough at some point. Mallorca are winless in their last five on the road in La Liga (D2 L3), scoring only twice and failing to keep a clean sheet in each.

Leganes v Barcelona - Sat, 20:00

Leganes couldn't do it again, could they? After beating Barcelona in this season's reverse fixture in La Liga, Borja Jimenez's side could become just the fifth promoted side ever to do the double over the Catalans in a top-flight campaign. There'd certainly be a couple of other grateful clubs in Madrid this weekend if they do...

It's true that you often need a lot of luck to get past the likes of Barcelona and strike a big underdog win as they did previously, but there are plenty of reasons to believe in their ability to make it hard for the league leaders again. Relative to their squad strength, Borja Jimenez has built a strong defensive side with what he's got this season, and there are plenty of solid foundations there.

Though it might not be enough to stay up when all is said and done, Leganes know exactly how they're trying to go about it. Keeping games close is what they do, and what they prepare for. Only two of their last 12 matches in La Liga have been decided by more than a single goal, and none of their last six at Butarque have had more than a one-goal margin either way (including a big 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid).

Of course, we know by this point that Barcelona are an attacking juggernaut. It wouldn't be a surprise if they made light work of Leganes at the weekend, given how high their confidence levels and consistency of performance has been of late. They are, however, coming off a big Champions League effort in midweek, where Flick might look to make changes for this one and risk disrupting some of their rhythm to keep stars fresh.

Overall, I'll go with Leganes to survive the +2 handicap here, along with a foul recommendation for one of the home side's men in the engine room.

Yvan Neyou has made 2+ fouls in three of his last five league starts at Butarque, and Leganes will come into this one with plenty of emphasis on their defensive game plan. The opportunities for Neyou to get into tangles should thus be heightened here, especially against a Barcelona side who are outstanding at opening up space in central areas.

Osasuna v Girona - Sun, 13:00

After an unbelievable 2023-24 campaign, Girona's season has been a pretty damp squib. They rarely looked competitive in their maiden Champions League campaign, while their La Liga performance suffered against their bolstered schedule.

Even though Europe is long gone for them, the problem is their domestic displays haven't exactly recovered. If anything, they might have been worse. If you were to have started the season on January 1st 2025, Girona would currently be in the relegation zone, having picked up more points than only Real Valladolid and Las Palmas (very likely the two worst teams in the division).

While it's true that Osasuna are only a point above Girona in the table, it's clear that the Navarran side are much closer to achieving what their coach is looking for than the visitors currently are. The Rojillos are a solid defensive block who, despite having difficulty working chances, play to their strengths and have found a formula that should keep them in the division pretty comfortably. They'll set up to frustrate Girona here, too.

The visitors are a side who often struggle against direct play, which is a clear strength of the hosts. Striker Ante Budimir will be tough to handle for Girona's centre backs if the service into him is good. He's netted 15 goals in 30 La Liga games this term, while he also has four in four games against Girona in the division.

Along with Budimir to get on the scoresheet here, I'll add in Osasuna midfielder Lucas Torro to make 2+ fouls in the game. This should be a game where Girona have plenty of the ball (Osasuna won't mind that), and keeping track of the away side's movements in central areas can be tricky at times. It's promising ground if you're looking to go after fouls/cards on the part of the home side, who have been a competitive and aggressive out-of-possession side under Vicente Moreno.

Torro has made at least two fouls in each of his last five La Liga starts at El Sadar, and if Osasuna can get themselves ahead here, they'll be happy to sit behind the ball and look to break things up.

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