Man United v Tottenham: Bruno and Son to star in 54/1 Bet Builder says Opta | OneFootball

English Premier League

Opta recommend a 54/1 Bet Builder for Man United v Tottenham on Sunday

Manchester United host Tottenham in the Premier League's Super Sunday game, and after landing a superb 33/1 in last week's big game, the guys at Opta have analysed the clash to come up with a Bet Builder that pays out at 54/1 if successful...

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Historically, this has been an entertaining fixture and one that has had a big significance at the top of the table.

With both teams stuck in mid-table after five matches, there will be none of the latter this time, but there should be loads of entertainment.

Let's get stuck in.

United edge the win-draw-win market

There is a level of synchronicity about Manchester United and Tottenham's league campaigns so far.

Both teams have identical league records, have conceded the same number of goals and are recovering from defeats to bitter rivals.

They are separated by just one place in the Premier League table, while the respective average opponent difficulty ratings (scored out of 100) from their opening five matches - as per Opta's supercomputer - were within 0.6.

Both can also think themselves unlucky not to be higher in the table. Tottenham are currently 10th and Manchester United 11th, while Opta's expected position model - calculated from match simulations based on the xG of shots within those matches - puts United fourth and Spurs fifth.

But it's the hosts who are the better bet for three points on Sunday, albeit narrowly.

Tottenham's away form has let them down badly in recent months, having picked up just 14 points from their last 15 league games on the road. Spurs have, in fact, won fewer Premier League away games (three) than any other ever-present team since the start of November 2023.

The visitors' only league victory in eight away from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium came on the final day of the season at already-relegated Sheffield United, who finished bottom with just 16 points.

They have also lost five straight matches against the Big Six and picked up just two points on an eight-game winless run against the top teams - the longest current streak of any Big Six team.

Manchester United won seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams at Old Trafford and there is some value in the price of 11/8.

United could score a hatful soon

Manchester United's goalless draw away to Crystal Palace last weekend reflected the primary issue that they have faced this season, that they have failed to make the most of chances they have been presented with.

That statement is backed up by the fact that they have the third-highest xG (9.6) in the Premier League this season, but have scored just five goals - only third-bottom Southampton have a bigger negative difference between their xG and goals scored.

Their shot-to-goal conversion rate, meanwhile, is the equal fourth-lowest in the division at 7.35% despite having the highest xG per shot (0.14) average.

While it's likely a mixture of Manchester United being both unlucky in front of goal and lacking cutting edge, there are reasons to be positive.

Bruno Fernandes, Joshua Zirkzee and Alejandro Garnacho are all in the top six xG underperformers in the Premier League, with each having made five appearances.

Zirkzee has the highest xG underperformance of any player to have scored a goal this season, while Fernandes has had more shots (17) than any other player in Europe's top five divisions without scoring.

The three players mentioned collectively scored 28 league goals between them in 2023-24, so are capable of changing the narrative on their own. The return of previously injured Rasmus Hojlund - who netted 10 last term - should also help get them going.

As a result, over 2.5 goals looks a good shout at 2/5. Fernandes, meanwhile, has the most enticing price of the players listed at 12/5.

Elsewhere in the United team, they are likely to continue relying on Amad Diallo to be one of their main creative sparks.

The 22-year-old has registered just one assist in the league, but has created more chances (12) than any of his team-mates and ranks equal-eighth in the division for chance creation. Diallo has also had more touches in the opposition box (32) than any other United player and is available at 11/4 to register another assist.

Don't completely discount Tottenham

As discussed, the dividing line between these two teams looks tight, so we can expect Spurs to give as good as they get at Old Trafford.

Tottenham rank second behind Manchester City for the number of shots taken (86), shots on target (35), successful final-third passes (998) and touches in opposition box (235) in the league.

Given the above, it's unsurprising that BTTS is as short as 4/11.

Thinking about where their goals might come from, it is notable that Spurs rank second for shots from set pieces (26), while only Fulham have had more headed shots than them (16).

Tottenham have also attempted more crosses (88) than any other team in the division, 21 of which have been successful, while Manchester United have conceded 15 set-piece goals since the start of last season - the fourth-most.

In the same period of time, Spurs have scored from 12 non-penalty set pieces with Cristian Romero getting five of those including one against Everton last month. The Argentine is 13/1 to score and 10/3 to have a shot on target after averaging 0.8 shots on target per 90 minutes this season.

Elsewhere, Son Heung-Min continues to be a creative force, having made more chances from open play (13) than any other player this season. With two goals and two assists already this season, he is a generous 1/1 to score or assist again. This is a fixture Son often performs well in, scoring four goals in his last seven top-flight clashes with United.

Pedro Porro is also worthy of attention in the goalscorer market, having scored his only goal of the season so far in Tottenham's 1-1 draw with Leicester on the opening day.

The Spanish defender loves to get up and down the right-hand side and has already had 10 shots in the league this season - the second-most of any Spurs player.

With the majority of his side's attacking coming down his side of the pitch, he should be considered at 13/2. Alternatively, he looks good value for two shots or more at 11/10.

Man in the middle

Chris Kavanagh will officiate this one, having given out 18 bookings, including a double yellow, in three Premier League matches so far. Both Manchester United and Tottenham, meanwhile, have seen at least four bookings in their last three respective league games. Back over 4.5 cards at 4/6.

That is not great news for Kobbie Mainoo, who has picked up three bookings and given away nine fouls so far this season - more than any United or Spurs player.

Rodrigo Bentancur has also been booked three times already, while Destiny Udogie has just one yellow but has given away eight fouls. With the Italian playing on the same side of the pitch as the explosive Diallo, don't be surprised if he picks up another yellow at 3/1.