The Independent
·28 février 2025
Newcastle vs Brighton prediction: Rutter 19/10 to dent Magpies’ cup dream
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The Independent
·28 février 2025
Newcastle welcome Brighton to St James’ Park on Sunday in one of five all-Premier League ties in the FA Cup fifth round (1:45pm, live on ITV1).
So far the Magpies have beaten League Two’s Bromley 3-1 and League One’s Birmingham City 3-2 so Sunday’s match will be a very different prospect if they are to reach the quarter-finals for the second season in a row.
Brighton’s route has been a bit tougher, with a 4-0 win over Championship side Norwich followed by a 2-1 win over Chelsea in the last round when Georginio Rutter and Kaoru Mitoma were on target.
Eddie Howe’s side have won just two of their last 15 meetings with Brighton in all competitions, drawing seven and losing six. They’ve already lost 1-0 against them at St James’ Park this season when Danny Welbeck scored the only goal of the game.
Brighton go into the game on the back of four straight wins after goals from Joao Pedro and Danny Welbeck earned them a 2-1 home win against Bournemouth on Tuesday to move them within one point of Sunday’s opponents in the league table.
Football betting sites are backing the home side for the win at 23/20, while you can get 23/10 on a Brighton win and 3/1 for the scores to be level after 90 minutes.
Brighton have won each of their last four FA Cup games against Sunday’s hosts without conceding a single goal, but this will be their first meeting in the competition since a 2-0 home win in the 2012-13 third round.
Andrea Orlandi and Will Hoskins scored the goals for Brighton while Newcastle played the last half an hour with just 10 men after Shola Ameobi was sent off.
Newcastle’s chances of progressing will depend on the fitness of striker Alexander Isak, who missed the midweek defeat to Liverpool with a groin injury and Howe has already stated he will not be taking any risks with him, especially with the Carabao Cup final on the horizon.
He was certainly missed at Anfield on Wednesday as the visitors failed to manage a single shot on target in his absence.
If he is missing again then a wager on Brighton to win comes into the equation. Newcastle can’t easily replace Isak with Callum Wilson, who is lacking match sharpness after another injury-hit season and made his first league start of the season on Wednesday.
There is so little to choose from between these two sides and with so much depending on team selection, one bet that looks like a good option is Brighton to score over 1.5 goals, available at 5/4 on betting sites.
They have scored in 14 of their 15 away matches this season, scoring 29 goals in total and over 1.5 on nine separate occasions
Brighton’s Georginio Rutter has four goals and two assists in his last three appearances in the FA Cup including three goals in his two games so far this season.
He netted twice against Norwich and cancelled out Bart Verbruggen’s own goal in the 2-1 win over Chelsea in the last round.
So far this season he has eight goals and five assists and betting apps are offering 10/3 on him scoring any time or 19/10 to score or assist.
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