Opta Predicts Liverpool v Arsenal Tips: Back Van Dijk to score in 100/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

English Premier League

Back Opta's Liverpool v Arsenal bet builder at 100/1 on Sunday

It's all bar a dead-rubber on paper, but Liverpool v Arsenal is the Premier League's top two going toe-to-toe on Sunday, and the guys at Opta have analysed the data to come up with a huge-price Bet Builder...

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Arsenal travel to Anfield on Sunday for the title decider that could have been, but isn't anymore because Liverpool have already won it.

But the fixture still represents the chance to find some value, so let's get going.

Favour Liverpool in the result market

Despite the fact there is nothing riding on it in terms of this being a title decider, there is no doubt that it's an intriguing fixture.

Having won their 20th title in their last home game, you can be sure that Arne Slot's side will want to come back to Anfield - for the penultimate time this season - and put on a decent show after losing 3-1 away to Chelsea last weekend.

It has been 19 years since a side lost both of their next two games in a season after confirming the title. In fact, that's only happened to teams in Premier League history, those being Arsenal in 1997/98 and Chelsea in 2005/06.

That defeat to Chelsea was Liverpool's first this season against any team currently in the top five all season, having won four and drawn two of the previous six. Their record in the intra-top five mini-league eclipses that of any other team, with 14 points in seven matches compared to Arsenal's nine in six.

The elephant in the room here is that the defeat for Liverpool came in their first game of the season in which they had nothing to play for. It's logical to expect teams not to play with quite the same vigour and intensity once they have either achieved their goals or they are beyond their reach.

But it is worth revisiting the fact that Liverpool maintained a points-per-game average of 1.85 after they had confirmed their previous Premier League title in the 2019/20 season, doing so by taking 13 points in seven matches.

At this juncture, it is worth making the point that Arsenal obviously do still have something to play for with their top-five spot not yet secure. The Gunners are only six points above sixth-placed Nottingham Forest with nine to play for.

Following their 3-1 aggregate defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League semi-final, a top-five spot is now all they have to play for.

Arsenal's current 10-game league form, meanwhile, amounts to just 14 points having won three, drawn five and lost two matches in that sequence. This period of form is undoubtedly where the Gunners let their title charge slip, having averaged 2.16 points per game in their previous 25 league matches.

Liverpool are also the best-performing home team in the Premier League this season, having taken 44 points from an available 51. Regardless of having little to play for, that's a formidable record, and unlike the Gunners they have had a full week of rest.

The Reds come into this having won eight league games on the spin at Anfield, while they are unbeaten in 15 - a run that includes victories over fellow top-five sides Newcastle United and Manchester City.

While the 21/20 about a home win is a little too skinny to qualify as serious value, that is the way to lean - as also suggested by the Opta supercomputer, which gives Liverpool a 46.6% chance of victory, with Arsenal's win probability down at 27.7%.

With that in mind, another stat worth mentioning is that Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 14 home games against Arsenal in all competitions (W7 D7) since a 2-0 loss in the Premier League in September 2012.

Arsenal's weak mentality could show

While we're favouring Liverpool to win this one, don't be shocked if they do so after falling behind initially.

The Gunners have taken the lead in their last seven league matches, but won just three. Most recently, Declan Rice gave Arsenal a 34th-minute lead against Bournemouth last weekend before two second-half goals gave the visitors the victory.

Arsenal have, in fact, dropped 21 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, which is their joint-most ever in a single campaign (level with 2019/20). That is especially bad news when you consider that Liverpool have taken a league-high 22 points from losing positions so far this season.

Liverpool are coming into this on the back of five matches in which both teams have scored in their last seven, having won four of those. So, BTTS at 4/7, BTTS in the first half at 11/4 and Liverpool to win and BTTS at 13/5 are all worth considering.

Liverpool still top the league for goals (81), expected goals (76.7), shots (602) and shots on target (218). They have scored 19 goals in their last seven home league games, averaging out to 2.7 per game, while they have scored fewer than two in just two of their 17 matches at Anfield. As a result, over 3.5 goals in the match looks a good bet at 7/4, having also landed in the 2-2 draw in October's reverse fixture, while over 1.5 Liverpool goals is great value at 5/6.

The above bets look especially enticing when considering that David Raya has been statistically vulnerable this season - he is the only goalkeeper in the Premier League with a save percentage of 70% or higher and more than two appearances to have a negative goals prevented figure (-0.1).

Value is with set-piece goals for Liverpool

Before getting into the bigger-value picks in the individual markets, we need to start with the obligatory mention of Mohamed Salah, who has scored 11 league goals against Arsenal. He has only netted more against Manchester United (13) and Tottenham Hotspur (12), and his strike at the Emirates in October made it three straight meetings with a goal against the Gunners.

At 7/5 to find the net, he has to be considered reasonable value despite scoring just one of his Premier League-leading 28 goals in his last six matches. Salah also ranks first for xG (24.1), shots (121) and shots on target (58).

But the real value is in backing Virgil van Dijk to score his second goal in as many matches at 9/1. The towering Dutchman has scored two of his three league goals in his last four Premier League appearances, while he has registered eight shots in the same period - accounting for 29% of his total shots this season (27).

Importantly for this pick, 39% of the 31 goals that Arsenal have conceded this season have come from set pieces - the highest share of any Premier League side. With that in mind, set-piece taker Trent Alexander-Arnold looks a decent shout for an assist at 16/5 as he looks to end his Anfield career on a high.

Elsewhere, Declan Rice to score or assist looks decent value at 16/5. Rice has got two assists and one goal from his last four league appearances, while he ranks equal-second in the Arsenal squad for assists (seven) and equal-sixth for shots (44).

Recommended bets

Back Liverpool, BTTS in First Half, Van Dijk to Score, Alexander-Arnold to Assist @ 100/1

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