Opta rate chances of Newcastle United now making Champions League – Intriguing | OneFootball

Some interesting Opta predictions on the chances of Newcastle United and the other Premier League clubs qualifying for the Champions League.

The Premier League is now at the halfway point, with 19 rounds of matches played.

As no doubt you will know, the top four in the 2024/25 PL table will automatically qualify for next season’s Champions League.

However, there is then the possibility of fifth place also getting a Champions League spot.

Last season was the first time two extra Champions League places were handed to the countries who saw their clubs collectively perform the best in European competitions.

If that had been in place previously, five of the six preceding seasons would have seen the Premier League winning a fifth spot, however, it was Serie A and the Bundesliga clubs who outperformed the English clubs, to each get an extra spot for the 2024/25 Champions League competition.

However, this current 2024/25 season, English clubs are collectively doing so much better than those from other countries, the Opta forecasting system sees it as a 97.8% chance currently, that fifth place this season in the Premier League, will get a Champions League place.

This is how the Premier League table currently looks on this Saturday (4 January 2025) morning:

Five (four in the Premier League) wins in a row have given Newcastle United a massive boost, especially with other teams faltering, such as Chelsea, who have picked up only one point from a last possible nine, when up against Everton, Fulham and Ipswich.

So with Opta overwhelmingly predicting the Premier League will get a fifth Champions League place, this is how they currently see the chances of the various teams ending up in that top five at the end of the season:

BBC Sport report – 3 January 2025:

‘As we enter a new calendar year and the halfway point of the season, the Opta Supercomputer has been busy making its predictions.

But who has the best chance of securing Champions League football next season?

With England given a 97.8% chance of finishing in the top two of Uefa’s coefficients rankings and receiving a bonus place in next season’s competition, it is highly likely to be a race to finish in the top five of the Premier League this campaign.

One team essentially guaranteed a Champions League spot season, according to the Supercomputer’s simulations, is high-flying league leaders Liverpool (100%).

Following closely on their heels are Arsenal and Chelsea, who occupy second and fourthgoing into this weekend’s fixtures, with a 99.8% and 91.7% chance of finishing in the top five respectively.

Despite their unprecedented drop-off in form over the past two months, Manchester City fans will be pleased to hear Opta still gives them a 89.1% chance of clinching the potential final Champions League spot next season.

It then becomes a hotly fought battle between two of the most in-form teams in the league right now.

Despite third-placed Nottingham Forest’s incredible campaign so far, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side still fall below Newcastle United in the predictions for fifth place – with a 33.6% chance compared to the Magpies’ 44.6%.’