Real Madrid v Man City Champions League Tips: 9/5 hosts can finish the job | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Carlo Ancelotti can get the better of Pep Guardiola again

Real Madrid struck late to win at the Etihad and Carlo Ancelotti's side can kill off Manchester City with another victory in their Champions League play-off second leg, says Dave Tindall...

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City have a mountain to climb

With four minutes left at the Etihad, this unexpected play-off between the tournament's last two winners looked perfectly balanced. A pair of Erling Haaland goals had put Manchester City 2-1 up and they had something positive to take to Spain.

But in what has become a familiar story for Pep Guardiola's men these days, they collapsed and threw it away. Or rather Madrid stole it from them. Brahim Diaz levelled on 86 and then Jude Bellingham tapped home in injury-time to leave City's hopes on the ropes.

City had been outsiders to go through before a ball was kicked but the betting was fairly tight: Real Madrid were 3/4 to progress and City a fraction over even money. But now those odds have changed dramatically. The new To Qualify prices show Real Madrid 1/6 and Man City 4/1.

The visitors were actually 9/2 to make it through before the weekend action but have been clipped after they showed much better signs in a 4-0 home win over Newcastle.

Real firepower too hot for City to handle

Ahead of the first leg, Guardiola had said it would be impossible to control Real Madrid's front four over the duration of the tie. He was right, although City couldn't even keep them at bay for a single leg.

Kylian Mbappe netted the equaliser - a mistimed shinner that he saw the funny side of but still counted - while Vinicius Junior struck the bar and had the shots that led to Real's second and third goals.

Vini Junior's slightly mishit lob led to the clincher from Bellingham, who had earlier been denied in a one-on-one by Ederson. Overall the shot count was 13-7 in Madrid's favour, the visitors also on top 7-3 when it came to efforts on target.

In contrast to City though, Real didn't have a great weekend, drawing 1-1 away to Osasuna and Bellingham being sent off and possible now facing a hefty ban after being accused of using foul language at the ref.

Hosts fancied to complete job with win

Real Madrid were 17/10 outsiders to win the first leg and, although they left it very late, I was slightly frustrated not to have cashed in. I included an away win in a Bet Builder but only two of the four legs paid off.

For the return, it's Real Madrid 10/11, Man City 13/5 and The Draw 16/5.

To show the uphill task facing City, Madrid have won 37 of the 39 ties in which they recorded an away first-leg win in UEFA competition. They've also won 20 of their last 27 home European games.

As for Manchesterr City's record on Spanish soil? They've lost eight of the last 16 and managed just four wins so it's not great.

On specifically Real Madrid soil, they played out a thrilling 3-3 draw in the quarter-finals last season and also drew 1-1 in the Bernabeu in the 2022/23 semis. They were also level at full-time in the 2021/22 semis there before losing in extra-time.

In short, Guardiola and his team have performed admirably in the Bernabeu but that brings us back to the current argument surrounding City: does their decline make previous form rather redundant? You'd have to say it does.

While it's tempting to think Real will settle for a draw as it will send them through, I think the hosts just have too much firepower against this creaking City defence.

Real can outscore visitors

Going into the weekend Premier League fixtures, only the bottom four along with Brighton and Aston Villa had conceded more away goals than City.

On a brighter note, only Liverpool and Chelsea had scored more times on the road than Pep's men.

Put those two facts together and it's reasonable to think we get a similar outcome to the first leg: Real Madrid win the game but City score too.

And that's the first bet. Real Madrid to win and BTTS is 9/5.

It's backed up from a Madrid point of view too as they've shipped 11 goals in 11 home games but headed into the weekend as La Liga's top home scorers with 29.

Big guns can find the target again

Goals are expected here with City having to force a result to stay alive.

And I'm happy to keep it simple by going down the obvious route when it comes to goalscorers.

With his strike against Osasuna at the weekend, Mbappe made it 11 goals in his last 10 games. It's more than fair that he's 10/11 to add to that streak here.

For City, Haaland has rather gone missing in the very big games but his brace in the first leg suggests he's starting to put that right. The Norwegian is 5/4 for another here.

The double on the two strikers finding the net is 3/1 and I'll play it.

There are other options of course and Bellingham at 11/5 and Omar Marmoush at 13/5 after his weekend hat-trick against Newcastle could appeal. A double on that pair pays just over 9/1.

One final bet to consider given City's habit of blowing leads is the HT/FT double result of Man City/Real Madrid.

It happened in the first leg and that scenario where City lead at the break but lose is 16/1 on Wednesday.

Now read the rest of our Champions League previews here!

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Real Madrid to win and BTTS @ 9/5 1pt - Back Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland both to score on Bet Builder @ 3/1

Staked: 48pts

Returned: 39.76pts

P/L: -8.24pts

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