Wrexham AFC must be wary of Wycombe Wanderers’ big advantage in promotion race - Phil Parkinson might have to change | OneFootball

Wrexham AFC manager Phil Parkinson may need to be more aggressive to surpass Wycombe Wanderers for promotion

As we have become accustomed to seeing since Phil Parkinson was appointed manager, Wrexham are in another tight race for an automatic promotion.

The Red Dragons have been hovering in-and-around the top two all season. They have eight matchdays remaining, and currently sit three points above Wycombe Wanderers in the race for second place and a guaranteed place in the Championship next season.

Despite winning both fixtures against Wycombe this season, Wrexham’s fate is out of their hands, as the Chairboys have a game in hand and hold the first tiebreaker advantage in goal difference.

Making their first appearance in League One in 20 years, Parkinson has relied on a passive tactical approach, which has them on the verge of a third successive promotion up the EFL pyramid. While the results have been relatively consistent domestically, Parkinson’s tactics may come back to bite the Red Dragons in the end.

Phil Parkinson’s League One model

Given the club’s budget and resources since Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney took charge, Wrexham were among the top teams in the National League in 2022-23 and again last season in League Two.

It shouldn’t be a massive shock to see Wrexham earn consecutive promotions, with so many players boasting experience in higher divisions.

However, this season Wrexham have come up against much tougher opposition, with Birmingham City’s massive spending and several clubs with years of recent Championship experience like Huddersfield Town, Reading, Blackpool, Rotherham United, Barnsley and Wigan Athletic, to name a few.

Because of the fiercer competition, Wrexham’s manager has decided to have his side play more passively, relying on the tireless work of midfielders like Matty James, George Dobson, James McClean, and Ollie Rathbone to break up the opposition's rhythm. That, combined with individual quality, has been the Wrexham model in 2024-25.

The benefits of Wrexham’s passive approach

On the one hand, Parkinson and his players deserve some credit for how well they have executed this defensive system. We’ve discovered another side to Wrexham that is very different from the goalscoring machine we saw in League Two and the National League.

They currently lead League One in clean sheets (19), more than in any previous domestic campaign since the takeover.

The Red Dragons have won 16 League One fixtures by a single goal, 10 by a 1-0 margin. Nine of their winning goals have come with 20 minutes or fewer remaining. Needless to say, they’re not an easy team to watch for the faint at heart, especially for their co-owner Rob McElhenney.

Steven Fletcher, Sam Smith, Rathbone, and Elliott Lee are among those who’ve scored timely goals to turn one point into three. At the same time, Wrexham might not have been in those matches if not for the team commitment.

There’s a long list of players to thank for their positive results this season, and it’s taken a total team effort to execute Parkinson’s approach and ensure they claim maximum points.

We’ve discovered that Wrexham doesn’t always need quality attackers Paul Mullin, Lee, and Ollie Palmer to contend.

The downside of Wrexham’s approach

No tactical approach is flawless, including Parkinson’s this season. A lack of greed and consistent attacking intent has seen them fail to win six league matches this season from a winning position, accounting for 14 points dropped. That may loom large at the end of this campaign.

Wycombe’s +28 goal differential, compared to Wrexham’s +22, could mean a whole lot in a few weeks. The Red Dragons still have eight matches remaining, while the Chairboys have nine. Wrexham’s boss must keep that in mind should Mike Dodds’ men from Buckinghamshire remain above the Red Dragons in the coming weeks.

Wrexham face some weaker defensive units in the coming weeks, namely, Cambridge United and Bristol Rovers, who’ve conceded the joint-second and third most goals in the league this season with 62 and 61, respectively.

It will be interesting to see if Parkinson employs a more aggressive approach to those games.

Should Wrexham be behind in the race for second with a few matches left, then Parkinson might have to go for broke and play to win big. Chances to make the Championship don’t come around often, and Parkinson knows that and no one wants to take their chances in the play-offs.

That said, Wrexham had a worse goal differential than Notts County when they won the National League and claimed the lone automatic promotion place in 2022-23 (see below).

Tiebreaker scenarios

Goal differential is not the only thing Wrexham must be aware of if Wycombe continue to claim maximum points. If two teams are tied on points and goal difference, the third tiebreaker is goals scored.

Wrexham have netted 52 times this season, 12 fewer than Wycombe, a margin that the Red Dragons may need to cut into sooner rather than later. Head-to-head results are the fourth tiebreak scenario, with Wrexham holding that advantage.

As is often the case with the Red Dragons down the stretch of the season, nothing seems easy, and every decision Parkinson makes between now and the end of the season could have devastating consequences for their promotion aspirations.