Abject misery, that was probably the main emotion | OneFootball

Cast your minds back to 25th May 2024, a miserable end to the season for Newcastle United has brought some slim reward, as the mixed results in recent weeks delivered enough for a Conference League place.

Not the most glamorous of competitions but the potential for some exciting trips and a very good chance of winning the trophy.

Then, even that, was snatched away from us by a familiar hand of denial.

We had been daft enough to assume it was a foregone conclusion that the almighty Man City would make a formality of their cup final derby, only to watch on in horror as the red menace raced into a two goal lead. Jeremy Doku’s late goal offered agonising hope but it was not to be. Man City were beaten and we were out of Europe.

The silver lining was quick to emerge. Our main seven rivals would now have to undertake new, unnecessarily punishing extended European campaigns. Surely injury, fatigue and the distraction of a big prize could allow United the opportunity to make gains in the domestic competitions.

This didn’t seem to be playing out in the autumn as an out of sorts Newcastle United returned some mixed results and mid-table seemed to beckon. However, as we enter February and the epic European group stages drag to a long awaited end, it may be time for those chickens to come home to roost.

I have only just realised that Man City’s underwhelming Champions League campaign has landed them with a stinking knockout tie against either Real Madrid or Bayern Munich. The two legs will be played between 11-19th February and guess who visits the Etihad in between those matches? Now it’s likely that Pep’s superteam will have enough to deal with these matches, but the ideal of a first leg away with a tie that remains to be settled ahead of them, surely gives us that bit more of a chance.

Having realised this, I dug down a bit further and discovered the following:

14th Feb Man City v NUFC, in between two legs of CL play-off v Real or Bayern

16th March – League Cup final. IF NUFC make it, Spurs or Liverpool will have the two legs of their respective last 16 ties in the two midweeks preceding the final

12/13th April NUFC v Man U – quarter finals of the Europa League fall either side of this game

19/20th April – Villa v NUFC – weekend after second leg of Champions League Quarter finals

10th May – NUFC v Chelsea – weekend after second leg of Conference League Semi finals.

The above has huge potential.

Should Spurs keep their lead at Anfield next week, the thought of them travelling to a second leg at Galatasaray or Fenerbahce (possible opponents) on the Thursday before the final is the ideal. Liverpool will be better equipped but they’ll be fully focussed on their CL knockouts for two midweeks when United are recovering and focussing on that pesky domestic trophy.

The subsequent games need a couple of things to work out. Villa need to win a last 16 tie, but if they do, the level of fatigue their stretched squad will have experienced after the QF will give United a huge opportunity. The odds on both Man U and Chelsea making the respective stages mentioned are very good.

This all adds in perfectly to a quick look I had at what might be required for success for Newcastle United this season. As outlined on The Mag in recent days, the likelihood of England securing the extra Champions League spot is nearing a certainty, so realistically finishing fifth has to be the target in the Premier League, a position that we also recently clarified cannot be usurped by some nuisance winning the Europa League.

I’ve said this before, but things are different to the past, where lower qualification could affect seeding or see one bundled into a tricky pre-qualifier. Now seeding is done on coefficient and qualifiers are for less affluent leagues, so the only benefits to finishing higher are to trouser a few more quid, which is nice but far from essential.

To try and have a view of the future, you should always look at the evidence of the past. To that effect I have pulled the details below, showing finishing points totals between 4th and 6th over the past ten years.

Newcastle United this season have currently got 41 points from the opening 23 PL matches, with these 15 PL games remaining:

Home: Fulham, Forest, Palace, Brentford, Man U, Ipswich, Chelsea, Everton

Away: Man City, Liverpool, West Ham, Leicester, Villa, Brighton, Arsenal

For the benefit of anyone who doesn’t like spreadsheets, the main takeaway here is that 66 points has been enough for 5th place over the last five years. This elevates to 67.5 over ten years, but this is perhaps inflated by a less competitive Premier League where the teams at the top were dominant.

As things have become more competitive to the point that there is currently a nine points gap between 3rd and 10th, the more recent target is likely to suffice. There has also only been one season in that decade where the sixth place team has exceeded 66 points.

To achieve this, Newcastle United need eight wins from the final 15 games. Well, technically eight wins and a draw, but I’m taking that as a given. If you look at the home games above, there’s only Chelsea who you’d call out as being a threat to Newcastle at least being strong favourites on paper. However, our recent scintillating away form, combined with the above European factor, means there are surely a few points on the road there, even with some tougher fixtures.

I think a key point to take here is that were we to drop points in the upcoming hard run with trips to the Anfield and Etihad, there is no need to panic as the potential to recoup these points to the necessary total is massive. Hopefully we see the job through on Wednesday and have the EFL Cup final to look forward to, which may understandably cause some distraction, but there is plenty in reserve in the time that follows that weekend.

Of course, this could be helped massively if it’s kicked off with a win for Newcastle United against Fulham on Saturday, one of only three sides (just) in the top half left to visit SJP. Let’s get that target down to seven wins and 22 points lads. This could well be a season to remember.