Arsenal v PSG: English football expert Dave Tindall says Gunners can reach final | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Mikel Arteta's side can reach the final

Arsenal stunned Real Madrid in the quarter-finals and can beat PSG over two legs in the semi-finals says Dave Tindall ahead of the first encounter at the Emirates on Tuesday night...

Watch Football...Only Bettor Champions League semi-finals special

Arsenal v PSGTuesday 29 April, 20:00

The View From Arsenal

We didn't quite know how much to read into Arsenal's strong performance in the 36-team group stage of this year's Champions League. They finished third with six wins and a draw from eight matches.

Finishing top didn't do Liverpool much good in the end but the teams in second (Barcelona), third (Arsenal) and fourth (Inter) comprise three of the four semi-finalists. In short, it seems a pretty good guide.

At the time, there was definitely a perception that Arsenal's strong group tally was all well and good but that they'd be found out in the knockout phase - especially when the draw paired them with kings of the Champions League, Real Madrid, in the quarter-finals.

Instead, the Gunners preyed on Real's weaknesses, hit new levels and powered through 5-1 on aggregate. It was hard to believe and yet fully deserved.

Declan Rice was player-of-the-match in both ties, his pair of stunning free-kicks in the 3-1 first leg win at the Emirates giving Arsenal the belief that something special was happening.

As their Premier League challenge petered away with a series of draws, the Champions League has become Arsenal's full focus. This could still be an absolute golden season in the Gunners' history as they look to win the competition for the first time.

They'll miss the suspended Thomas Partey for the first leg.

PSG seek Premier League treble

PSG have been the scourge of English teams in this year's Champions League knockout stages.

In the last 16, they knocked out Liverpool on penalties after somehow losing the first leg at home but recovering with a win at Anfield to send the tie to spot-kicks.

And after beating Aston Villa 3-1 in Paris and taking a 2-0 lead at Villa Park they held off a storming fightback by the hosts to go through 5-4.

This pair met in the 2016/17 Champions League with both legs ending in a draw: 2-2 at the Emirates and 1-1 in Paris.

But of far more relevance is Arsenal's 2-0 win over PSG in October, a league phase victory secured by first-half goals from Kai Havertz (still out injured) and Bukayo Saka.

The conundrum is that the pre-Chrismtas PSG were not at the levels of the current one. Let's remember, they only played Liverpool so early after stuttering in the league phase, losing three matches and finishing 14th.

Gunners the call

With home advantage, the market sees Mikel Arteta's men as by far the most likely winners on Tuesday night although they're still odds-against.

Arsenal are 23/20 on the Sportsbook, with PSG 12/5 and The Draw also 12/5.

Both teams have slightly taken their eye off the league in recent weeks, Arsenal due to Liverpool showing no let up in their title-winning momentum and PSG for being way clear in Ligue 1 (they lead by 23 points).

So I won't read too much into PSG's latest two domestic results: a 1-1 draw at Nantes and a 3-1 home loss to Nice which left the visitors just a point off second place.

That game also ended PSG's hopes of going through Ligue 1 unbeaten and, in truth, they had enough chances to win it. As in their 1-0 home loss to Liverpool, sometimes the French champions play some absolutely great stuff but it doesn't translate into a positive result.

That's why this market is tricky. If PSG take their chances, Arsenal could be in big trouble. If they don't, there is a pathway for the Gunners to make the final.

And with Arsenal odds-against at 21/20 to Qualify, that's the first bet. Beating Real Madrid so convincingly will have done wonders for their confidence, as would watching Villa really put PSG under the gun at Villa Park.

Arsenal's defence is far more robust than Villa's and with Saka getting sharper by the week, Arteta's men have the firepower to reach the final.

Rice can make a mark again

Declan Rice's free-kick double in the first leg against Real Madrid still seems a bit surreal but his performance in the second leg showed that he's gone to a new level in this competition.

PSG have perhaps had a little trouble coping with players running from midfield and I like the 6/4 about Rice having 1+ Shots on Target. That's going to be the first leg of a Bet Builder.

The second part is Ousmane Dembele to also have 1+ Shots on Target. The frontman has been brilliant this season but the goals have dried up for the time being after six blank games.

But he'll keep knocking at the door and should get chances.

The double on both testing the goalkeeper is around 12/5. The more ambitious could back both in a goalscorer double at 20/1.

Now read all the rest of our Champions League match previews & best bets

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Arsenal To Qualify @ 21/20

1pt - Back Declan Rice and Ousmane Dembele both to have 1+ Shots on Target @ 12/5

Paul Higham's Build Ups Tips:

Player To Have More Shots On Target

I thought I'd look away from the respective forward lines to try and fins some value and a player that stood out is PSG right-back Achraf Hakimi, who I'm backing against Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard in a Shots on Target Match Up at the Emirates.

Hakimi's stats are pretty solid for an attacking right-back, with his shots on target stats reading 0.92 per 90 minutes in the Champions League, compared to 0.58 for Odegarrd this season, so even just on those numbers the 3/1 on the Moroccan looks enticing.

He's scored twice and hit the target in nine Champions League games this season, including at the Emirates back in October, and crucially for a bet like this he's had four games with 2+ shots on target.

Odegarrd has three goals in the competition, but two of those came in the rout of PSV and he's hit the target in just two of his last nine games for club and country - plus he may have a bit more defending to do here with PSG so good on the ball.

Player To Win More Fouls

It's not often we can get odds against on any kind of bet on Bukayo Saka being fouled, but at 11/10 we can take him to win a Player To Win More Fouls Match Up at the Emirates.

And that's because PSG's excellent winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is also on the pitch, and one of the few players that can match Saka's stats for drawing fouls.

The Georgian has been fouled 12 times in six UCL games compared to 13 in seven for Saka with them both have four 2+ fouled games so there's hardly anything between them.

That side of the pitch should be fascinating with full-backs Nuno Mendes and Jurrien Timber right up against it and both giving away plenty of fouls - but I just think giving Saka home advantage with European referees should give him the edge.

Dave's P/L for 24/25 season

Staked: 74.5pts

Returned: 58.17pts

P/L: -16.33pts

Previous:2023/2024 P/L: -£20.792022/2023 P/L: +£16.792021/2022 P/L: +£8.692020/2021 P/L: +£3.06