Aston Villa v Celtic: Back Emery's men to fluff lines and miss out on top eight | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Aston Villa are 4/9 to make the top eight

A win would put Aston Villa in a very strong position for a top eight finish in the Champions League but they are worth taking on at the prices, says Sky Sports' Lewis Jones...

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Aston Villa v CelticWednesday 29 January, 20:00

Villa can't be trusted at short prices

Unai Emery looked like a man who had given up hope after Aston Villa's 1-0 defeat in Monaco. Emery spoke of them having blown their chances of a top eight finish in the Champions League.

That couldn't be further from the truth.

Aston Villa have their destiny in their own hands still in that a win over Celtic will see them move into the top eight as long as all four of Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen don't win. When you put a probability to that outcome it's around 70 per cent with the Betfair Sportsbook offering 4/9 on Emery's team heading straight through to the last-16.

Meanwhile, Celtic are also assured of a play-off place - their job is done - and are 150/1 to make the top eight as they need a win and a remarkable set of results from teams above them to go their way. That's not happening.

But I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss them getting a positive result at Villa Park.

When you assess the Betfair Exchange win market this looks like a simple night for Villa but I've got my doubts about their 1.55 prospects. It's a price that screams a lay for me based on their performances of late.

Data shows Villa miss influence of Torres

Villa are a team that are easy to score against and head into this fixture after back-to-back poor performances against Monaco and West Ham.

Pau Torres is a huge miss and I'm always wary of trusting them at short prices when he's missing.

The data points to the Spanish defender being a massive player for them.

Since the start of last season, in 51 games with him, Villa's win percentage is at 58 per cent and they've conceded 1.3 goals per game. Without him, across a sample size of 20 games, their win percentage drops to 34 per cent and they are conceding 1.9 goals per game. In total, their percentage drops 24 per cent without him and they concede 0.6 more goals.

Of course, football is a low scoring sport so that goals conceded number is a red flag when it comes to backing Villa in this spot.

How do we get Celtic on our side then? It's through the Asian Handicap market on the Betfair Exchange.

Emery is a manager that doesn't go for the throat when getting a lead - he's happy to sit deep when in front and I don't think Villa are playing well enough to run up any sort of score past Celtic even if they do land the odds.

Celtic are a huge price at 2.08 with a +1 goal start on the Asian handicap line, meaning we'll cop a winner if Villa don't win and our get stakes refunded if Villa win by one goal.

And if you backed Villa's opposition with this +1 handicap start in their last 21 matches, you'd have only lost money once as Villa have failed to win by two or more goals in 20 in of their last 21 matches.

Recommended bets

Back Celtic +1 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.07