Barcelona v Real Madrid: Back Barca to pinch El Clasico plus 10/1 Mbappe & Lewandowski double | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Robert Lewandowski can play a big part for Barcelona against Real Madrid

Paul Higham fancies Barcelona to recover from their Champions League heartbreak in time to defeat Real Madrid in a pivotal El Clasico on Sunday, and has a good way to back Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski in a 10/1 double...

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Barcelona v Real MadridSunday 11 May, 15:15 kick-offLive on La Liga TV & Premier Sports 1

What a time for the final El Clasico of the season, where Barcelona could all-but seal the league title but are bruised and battered from their midweek Champions League heartbreaker - could Real Madrid pounce to blow the title race wide open?

Hansi Flick's side have won all three meetings this season, 12-4 on aggregate, but Real, who are 12/5, have emerged victorious from four of their last five trips to Barcelona and another success here would move them to within a point of Barca with three games to play.

That would ensure a thrilling title race doewn the stretch, but 5/6 home favourites Barcelona can make it a seven-point lead and basically clinch the title with a 14th home win of the season.

Outgoing Real boss Carlo Ancelotti knows this is almost a must-win if he's to add to his 15 trophies at the Santiago Bernabeu, and while a 9/4 draw would keep things interesting he's never overseen an El Clasico stalemate in his 19 fixtures as Los Blancos boss (W9 L10).

Much will depend on how quickly Flick can get his side to recover and what sort of team he is able to put out - it's a tough ask for Lamine Yamal for instance to play a full 90 minutes of an El Clasico having done 120 minutes in Milan on Tuesday.

Barca do have Robert Lewandowski back though and their 91 league goals so far is their most at this stage of a season for eight years, while Real's 33 goals conceded is a six-year high, so with the last five El Clasicos having 4+ goals in them you have to believe plenty will flow again.

So much so that it's odds-on at 4/5 for over 3.5 goals - which is understandable given recent results and the attacking talent on display - and with how both sides have been defending of late it's unthinkable that both of them won't score.

Ultimately, though, I just think Barca will edge it at home. They outplayed Inter Milan in truth and were unlucky not to get through that tie, so as long fatigue isn't an issue I'll back them for an El Clasico clean sweep.

Back Lewandowski & Mbappe in 10/1 shot

As we discussed, neither side has been defending well recently, so there should be chances for the returning Robert Lewandowski and Kylian Mbappe - the top two in the La Liga scoring charts who are 5/6 and 11/10 respectively for anytime scorer.

They've got five El Clasico goals between them this season, with Mbappe scoring eight times in seven career games against Barca and Lewandowski scoring 11 in 17 games against Real Madrid.

The bet I like for this pair is the 10/1 OddsOnThat special on the Sportsbook on them to both score the first goal for their teams, which they've both done at times this season.

Mbappe has scored Real's first goal in the last two El Clasico meetings, and it would've been all three but for a disallowed VAR goal for offside in the first La Liga fixture this season - in which Lewandowski bagged Barca's first in their 4-0 victory.

The Poland international scored the second Barca goal in Super Cup so we've been there or thereabouts on this one a couple of times - Sunday looks a great chance for us to land this big one.

Focus on fouls in 7/1 treble

There's a 3/1 OddsBoost on the Sportsbook on Lamine Yamal to score or assist and be fouled 2+ times, which would have every chance as long as he starts, which he likely will unless his young less are feeling the strains of his brilliant performance in Milan.

I'm waiting on the teamsheets for that one, with one final Bet Builder here focused on fouls, that we'll surely get in bucketloads given the size of the game and the rivalry between these two.

Vinicius Jr was fouled seven times (7!) in reverse fixture and three in Copa del Rey final so he needs to be backed at 7/5 to be fouled 3+ times as Barca really see to key-in on the Brazilian for these big games.

Pedri has been fouled in his last four games including one against Real Madrid in the cup, and he was brought down three times in the Supercopa meeting between the pair. In the heat of this crucial bettle then Pedri should be easy to back at 1/1 for 2+ fouls.

And finally Eric Garcia is likely to operate at right-back for Barca, and thet spells free kicks with the likes of Vincius Jr around, so we'll add in 2+ fouls for Garcia, as he managed the last time he faced Barca, at 11/10.

Recommended bets

Back a Barcelona win & both teams to score @ 9/5 Back Mbappe first Real Madrid goal & Lewandowski first Barca goal @ 10/1 Back Vinicius fouled 3+ times, Pedri fouled 2+ times & Garcia 2+ fouls @ 7/1