Brundish: “Liverpool are not equipped to handle ultra-physical games” | OneFootball

Liverpool’s Tactical Struggles Against Newcastle: A Deep Dive into the Numbers

Liverpool’s defeat in the League Cup final was disappointing for fans, but the 2-1 loss to Newcastle in the Premier League was arguably a more concerning result. In the latest Under Pressure podcast from Anfield Index, Dan Kennett, Simon Brundish, Dr Phil Barter, and Hamzah Khalique-Loonat broke down Liverpool’s shortcomings with a sharp statistical analysis.

From lineup decisions to physical mismatches and tactical inefficiencies, the game against Newcastle exposed weaknesses in Liverpool’s system. Let’s break down the key data and insights from the discussion.

Photo IMAGO

Tactical Setups and Selection Decisions

Liverpool’s lineup sparked debate even before kick-off. Hamzah Khalique-Loonat noted how Newcastle took advantage of Liverpool’s selection choices:

“Seeing Alisson not on the team sheet immediately does something to that psyche in the dressing room. This was the biggest game of the lives of some of those Newcastle players, and they saw that Liverpool didn’t bother to play their best keeper.”

While Arne Slot largely stuck with his first-choice team, the lack of rotation in midfield was questioned. Simon Brundish pointed out the high running loads in recent matches:

“Running 15.5k and 14.5k just five days before… You can’t overestimate the consequence of having your dreams destroyed four days before.”

Fatigue seemed to be a factor, with Liverpool’s usual intensity missing, particularly in the first half.

Newcastle’s Game Plan and Defensive Shape

Newcastle’s tactical discipline under Eddie Howe was crucial. Hamzah Khalique-Loonat highlighted their press adjustments:

“In the Anfield game, Newcastle pressed in a 4-4-2 shape, but here they switched to a 4-5-1 in mid-block before transitioning into a high press. It made it harder to find space.”

By comparison, Liverpool’s press lacked aggression, a point that Simon Brundish emphasised:

“There were plenty of pressing opportunities, but our midfield was too deep, our distances were too long, and our players were looking at each other instead of pressing.”

Statistical Breakdown: Liverpool’s Lack of Threat

Liverpool dominated possession with 60%, but the shot count told a different story:

As Dr Phil Barter explained:

“We look at our threshold for threat – under 50, you defended well; over 100, you attacked well. Neither team was really in those bands, but we were well below the attacking threshold we’d expect from Liverpool.”

Salah’s Isolation: Systematic Issue

One of the biggest takeaways was the complete isolation of Mohamed Salah. The numbers were damning:

Photo IMAGO

Hamzah Khalique-Loonat explained:

“This system is entirely built around progressive passes into Mo, allowing him to take it into the box and create danger. But Liverpool didn’t access him at all. Trent’s absence was massive because he is the key facilitator.”

A deep dive into season-long statistics showed that 30% of Salah’s progressive passes received come from Trent Alexander-Arnold. With him missing, the system collapsed. Dr Phil Barter added:

“We had six Newcastle players with higher expected threat (xT) than any Liverpool starter.”

Set-Piece Fragility: Dan Burn’s 3% Header

Newcastle’s first goal came from a set-piece header by Dan Burn, a 3% chance. Simon Brundish was clear in his criticism of how Liverpool defended it:

“He had a free, forward-facing run, completely unimpeded. If he did this 50 times, he might get the ball there three times. But we emptied the middle too easily, and Virgil probably could have got a little closer to head it clear.”

Newcastle generated 0.43 xG from set pieces, while Liverpool’s attacking set pieces remained ineffective.

Late Tactical Chaos and Panic Stations

At 2-0 down, Liverpool shifted into an unorthodox setup, throwing on attackers and pushing Wataru Endo into a hybrid centre-back role. Dan Kennett noted:

“By the time we had six forwards on the pitch, it was just chucking everything at the wall and hoping something sticks.”

There was some success, with Harvey Elliott providing the assist for Cody Gakpo’s late goal. However, Hamzah Khalique-Loonat pointed out Liverpool’s lack of composure in chasing the equaliser:

“Newcastle are very good at managing time. From 75 minutes onward, we probably only had about eight minutes of actual ball-in-play time. We panicked and went long, playing straight into their strengths.”

Photo: IMAGO

Final Thoughts: Tactical Wake-Up Call

Liverpool’s defeat at Wembley may have been excusable given the injuries, but this loss to Newcastle exposed a concerning trend. The pressing intensity is declining, Trent Alexander-Arnold’s absence disrupts the entire attacking structure, and the midfield’s fatigue is taking its toll.

With tough fixtures ahead, Arne Slot must find a way to maintain Liverpool’s attacking patterns without over-reliance on individual brilliance. As Simon Brundish warned:

“This team has battered the weaker sides in the league, but if we have to play a power opponent in an ultra-physical game, we are not equipped to handle it.”

With the title race heating up, fixing these tactical flaws quickly will be crucial if Liverpool want to keep pace with Manchester City and Arsenal.