Burnley v Leeds: Clarets interesting underdogs at Turf Moor | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Burnley's defence commands maximum respect

Promotion-chasing pair Burnley and Leeds cross swords at Turf Moor on Monday night with Betfair writer Mark O'Haire expecting a close Championship encounter...

Burnley v LeedsMonday January 27, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Burnley ruthless on the road

Burnley can move level on points with league leaders Leeds should they follow up their midweek demolition of Plymouth with three points on Monday. The Clarets ran riot in the first-half away at Argyle, racing into a five-goal lead before the interval as Zian Flemming (x2), Josh Laurent (x2) and Josh Cullen all got on the scoresheet against the Pilgrims.

Head coach Scott Parker was full of praise for his players post-match, saying: "I thought we were superb. We came here with a real clear idea and a game plan. We needed to come here with a mentality and mindset about us, and the players executed everything brilliantly. We were just ruthless. I thought we had everything about us and I'm very pleased."

Jonjo Shelvey will hope to be involved after signing for Burnley last week and missing out on contention at Plymouth. Elsewhere, Jordan Beyer, Aaron Ramsey, Enock Agyei, Manuel Benson and Nathan Redmond are all expected to remain sidelined with Hannibal Mejbri, Luca Koleosho, Ashley Barnes and Jay Rodríguez all potential options from the bench.

Leeds top of the table

Leeds eased past a toothless Norwich at Elland Road to go back to the top of the Championship last midweek. The West Yorkshire side were cushy 2-0 winners over the Canaries, notching the Championship's fastest goal of the season when Manor Solomon struck after just 31 seconds. Dan James grabbed the decisive second after half-time.

A seventh win in 11 unbeaten league games run puts Leeds a point ahead of the chasing pack and boss Daniel Farke was impressed with his team's efforts. He said, "We were solid and dominant in our defending - we didn't give away an opportunity for the opponent. We were dominant but could have dominated the game much more and created more."

No new injuries were reported by the Whites with Farke expected to select the same squad for the trip to Burnley. Looking ahead to the crunch clash, the Leeds chief added, "This will be a complicated task, one of the toughest tasks that you can face - away at Turf Moor against an in-form side. For that, we have to be at our best to give ourselves a chance."

Clarets command respect

Burnley squeaked a 1-0 success away at Elland Road when the two teams met back in September, though encounters between the two clubs have tended to be tight affairs in recent years. Leeds boast a W3-D2-L2 supremacy record in seven league showdowns since 2015 with five of those seven meetings paying-out for Under 2.5 Goals backers.

Burnley 3.55 are eye-catching outsiders for Monday night's match-up. The Clarets have lost only twice under Scott Parker - neither of which arrived at Turf Moor (W6-D7-L0) - with the hosts boasting a joint-record for the most clean sheets (17) and least goals conceded (9) at this point in the season across EFL history (28 matches). A remarkable effort.

Leeds 2.44 have produced their best work away at Elland Road. The table-toppers have earned only five Championship victories on their travels thus far (W5-D6-L2) with four of those wins arriving against the bottom-eight. The Whites have returned W1-D5-L2 away at the top-16 and have failed to even score three of four trips to the current top-eight.

Go low on goals, high on cards

Leeds' superior performance metrics has marked them out as firm favourites here but I'm happy to oppose the Whites here, starting our Bet Builder off with Burnley Double Chance. We can include Under 3.5 Goals and Over 3.5 Cards to the equation for a 6/4 shout - a price that holds plenty of appeal considering the overwhelming data in our favour.

A tasty 47 of the duos combined 56 Championship contests have featured fewer than four goals with Burnley's Turf Moor tussles avergaing only 1.46 goals per-game. All of the Claret's 18 encounters with the bottom-eight have stayed below Under 3.5 Goals, as have 14 of Leeds' 16 matches with top-14 teams. Meanwhile, 10 of their 13 away days went Under 2.5.

Cards-wise, clashes between the league's elite have tended to produce plenty of needle. The September showdown between the pair produced nine cards,  whilst 10 of Burnley's 11 head-to-heads with the top-nine have produced Over 3.5 Cards, as have six of Leeds' eight contest with top-eight opposition. The magnitude of the match should ensure bookings.