Ipswich v Aston Villa tips: Back cards at 3/1 in spicy encounter | OneFootball

English Premier League

Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - is excited to get stuck into the cards line at Portman Road as both teams chase Premier League points...

Ipswich v Aston VillaSunday September 29, 14:00Live on Sky Sports

Play your cards right

Kieran McKenna has worked out quickly that for Ipswich to survive they have had to adapt. The free-scoring and attack-minded team that ripped apart the Championship is no more - for now.

They have become more dogged and a bit uglier - as shown by some hard-fought points gained so far away at Brighton and Southampton. That bodes well for their chances of survival as they can switch to a more expansive style when the time is right but also scrap when needed. They are making more fouls (14.2), receiving more yellow cards (3) and making more tackles (18.4) than they did per 90 in the Championship.

All of that should be on show this Sunday in what is a meeting of two very confrontational teams that play on the edge. Tackles should fly as should the fouls which means we simply have to back the cards line at the current odds.

The game to produce over 4.5 cards is trading at 5/6 with the Betfair Sportsbook - a very generous offering indeed.

Four of Ipswich's five games have seen over 4.5 cards land whilst Villa have got players that draw lots of yellow cards and fouls. In total they have drawn 18 yellow cards off the opposition this season in five games, averaging out at over three per game. Morgan Rogers, Amadou Onana and Jacob Ramsey all like travelling at speed with the ball, which can lead to late tackles which draw cards.

This game should bubble nicely along from a cards angle and referee Stuart Attwell could be in for a busy afternoon. He's averaging 4.35 yellows per game since start of last season in the Premier League and has shown five red cards in that time, so I'm hoping he can deliver.

And card happy referees has been a common theme in the Premier League this season.

From the last 23 Premier League matches, 19 of them have seen over 4.5 cards land for punters to an average which currently stands at 6.5 cards per game for that timeframe. So, when you get a chance to back that line around Evens involving two aggressive teams you simply have to act with confidence stakes.

Throw 15/8 mad-dog Morsy into the mix

When Ipswich skipper Sam Morsy is playing, it's a great thing for punters that want to back cards.

No player was carded more in the Championship than him last season (14) and he's already been carded in three of his five games in the Premier League this season.

There is certainly a trend developing that he's prone to a card early on in a campaign where suspensions aren't an issue.

In his last seven seasons between Matchday 1 and Matchday 12, Morsy has been booked 30 times in 68 matches - a 44 per cent strike rate.

He'll be pumped as usual and he should help the bookings flow. The 15/8 for him to pick up a card is certainly a runner. If you combine him to be carded and the over 4.5 card line, you present a very palatable 3/1 to attack.

Now read more Premier League previews and tips here.

Recommended bets

Back over 4.5 cards & Sam Morsy to be carded @ 3/1