Man City v Bournemouth: Pragmatic hosts can keep goal count low | OneFootball

English Premier League

Man City need three crucial points when they host Bournemouth on Tuesday

Andy Schooler says going under the total goals line looks the value play in Tuesday's important Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium...

Manchester City v BournemouthTuesday 20 May, 20:00Live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event

"Now we rest and recover quick for the last two finals to qualify for the Champions League."

So said Pep Guardiola in the wake of Saturday's FA Cup final defeat at Crystal Palace which means Manchester City, treble winners just two years ago, will finish the season without a trophy.

As their manager states, there is still much to play for in the final week of the season, although not quite what you might have thought would be at stake in late May.

Pressure on as City chase top five

Weekend results have piled the pressure on sixth-placed City here and another shock defeat in a season of shock defeats would take UCL qualification out of their own hands - Bournemouth to win the game is offered at 6.4.

Any other result will, however, mean a victory at Fulham on Sunday would be good enough for a top-five finish.

The good news for City 1.55 is that this is a Bournemouth side who have dropped out of form. Two months ago, this would have been a much tougher-looking game for Guardiola's team. Indeed, it actually was, with City coming from behind to win 2-1 in the FA Cup on the south coast.

The Cherries have won only two of their last 13 games in all competitions (excluding penalty shoot-outs) and arrive at this one having suffered more blows.

They now know one of their best players, defender Dean Huijsen, will be joining Real Madrid at the end of the season, while their chances of qualifying for Europe have diminished. Palace's Wembley win makes it less likely that the eighth-placed Premier League finisher will play European football in 2025/26, although Bournemouth will head into this one with hopes still flickering.

Can Cherries repeat win?

How the Cherries will approach this remains to be seen. City again showed vulnerability at Wembley where they were unable to unpick Palace's low block and were found wanting, at times, in transition. It has become a familiar tale; Southampton earned a goalless draw with their defensive tactics the week before.

Andoni Iraola seems less likely to produce deep-lying tactics. His side pressed City effectively when winning the reverse fixture back in November. At the time, it was City's first Premier League defeat in 32 games. Six months is a long time in football.

Still, Bournemouth are not currently the free-flowing side they were back then. They've scored only four goals in their last five games, a stat that leads me to a bet for this game.

Both teams have been struggling for goals of late - City have just gone goalless in back-to-back matches for the first time since October 2022.

Low goal count looks good value

That has led to the unders landing regularly in the total goals market.

Under 2.5 goals has won in four of those last five Bournemouth games, while City have a longer such trend.

Ten of their last 15 have seen under 2.5 goals, including eight of 11 in this competition. For a team which once had pushed the goal line up to over/under 3.5 goals, that's pretty remarkable.

A legacy from City's 'good old days' is that you can still get 2.7 about under 2.5 goals in this contest and, given those stats, that has to be worthy of consideration.

Yes, Bournemouth may come out a bit more but given three points are so crucial to City, it's unlikely the hosts will keep storming forward in search for more goals if they do get ahead. There will surely be a more conservative approach - one which seems even more likely given this game comes just three days after their Wembley efforts.

Guardiola bemoaned the scheduling of this one and, if fatigue is a genuine concern, there may well be a more pragmatic approach to the one we've become accustomed to at the Etihad.

De Bruyne to sign off with goal?

In terms of other potential bets, I still like Kevin de Bruyne's chances of adding to his City goals tally.

I went with him in the Cup final in this site's football props column only to see him shoot inches wide at the death. He had four shots overall that day, adding to three he took at Southampton.

The Belgian has still scored in two of his last six and will surely be determined to go out on a high - this will be his final game at the Etihad where he has written his name into club folklore.

13/5 in the anytime scorer market has potential.

For those putting Bet Builders together, it's worth noting that Nico O'Reilly has committed a foul in seven of his last eight starts and may have a tough game dealing with Bournemouth's counter-attacks given his propensity to move forward into a midfield role.

Meanwhile, Huijsen has landed the same 1+ foul bet in 11 of his last 12.

Opta fact

Manchester City have failed to score in six different Premier League games this season, as many as they had in 2022/23 (3) and 2023/24 (3) combined.

Recommended bets

1pt under 2.5 goals @ 2.7

Andy Schooler's P/L 2024/25

Staked: 30pts Returned: 36.09pts P/L: +6.09pts

2023/24: +4.54pts