Manchester United win Europa and take Champions place off Newcastle United? Let me explain | OneFootball

I have recently read and heard, Newcastle United fans worried that Eddie Howe and his team could miss out on a Champions League place to Manchester United or Spurs.

The top four in the Premier League automatically qualify for next season’s Champions League.

Which is looking all but certain to be the top five in the Premier League, as England’s teams are collectively doing better in Europe this season than any other country’s teams.

UEFA as part of the expanded Champions League, starting this season, have included two clubs who qualified due to their countries’ teams having done better in Europe the previous season, than those in the other countries.

This is how the Premier League table currently looks on Thursday 30 January 2025:

As things stand, Newcastle United in fifth place, so if this table was exactly repeated after 38 games in terms of placings, NUFC would get the fifth Champions League place, if the Premier League was indeed awarded one.

Manchester United are 12 points adrift of Newcastle United at the moment, Spurs 17 points adrift.

So why are some Newcastle United fans afraid that either Man U or Tottenham could be the ones likely to deprive United of a Champions League place?

Well, the winners of the Europa League get a Champions League place and some Newcastle United fans worry that if either English club wins that competition, then the fifth placed Premier League club could lost that Champions League spot (assuming the Premier League had indeed won an extra place for next season. Even though Man U and Spurs have been struggling in the Premier League, they are the two favourites to win the Europa League. The Europa League far weaker this season with the Champions League having added four more clubs AND the fact that no Champions League competitors now drop into the Europa League halfway through the competition.

So, can Manchester United or Spurs if winning the Europa League, potentially deprive Newcastle United of a Champions League place if NUFC have finished fifth and the PL has won an extra spot?

The simple answer is a big fat NO!

The explanation as to why, isn’t quite so simple, but here goes.

If a Premier League team wins the 2024/25 Champions League, or the 2024/25 Europa League, they automatically qualify for the league phase of the 2025/26 Champions League, regardless of their Premier League finishing position.

There is now no limit on how many teams from one country/ league can qualify for the Champions League, unlike in the past.

So if the Premier League does get five places and Man U or Spurs win the Europa League but finish outside the top five, they would still qualify for the Champions League along with the fifth-placed team, giving the Premier League six sides in the competition.

Seven Premier League clubs in the Champions League?

There could even be as many as SEVEN Premier League clubs in the 2025/26 Champions League, if the winners of the Champions League and Europa League both finish outside the top five.

However, if the Premier League club that wins the Champions League or Europa League also finishes in the top four (or five if the PL gets that extra place), then their qualification spot will not drop to another team in the Premier League.

Good news on Wednesday night for the potential of that extra Premier League place in the Champions League

The Premier League already had a very significant lead ahead of the other countries/leagues, in terms of getting one of those two extra Champions League places.

Then last night we saw Man City, Villa and Arsenal all win their Champions League matches, Liverpool lose.

Three of the four English clubs now into the last 16, Man City having to now do so through a play-off. In contrast, the Bundesliga saw two clubs knocked out, Serie A and La Liga had one each knocked out.

The coefficient points (the eventual points total is divided by how many clubs a league had in Europe) that decide which leagues get the extra Champions League places, are awarded to clubs for winning games and reaching different stages of the competitions.

So a match win in any of the three European competitions at any stage after qualifying, is worth two points, a draw is worth one point.

There are then bonus points depending on where a team finishes in the league phase, with more points on offer in the Champions League versus the Europa League and Conference League.

Barcelona could only draw at home to Atalanta last night and so this helped guarantee Liverpool ended up top of the group/league stage, despite losing last night at PSV. This meant 12 bonus points for the Premier League points total, Liverpool topping the Champions League league phase (it is only six for the Europa League league phase winner, four for the Conference League league phase winner).

There are also points awarded for reaching each of the knockout rounds, which are again weighted by competition, with then the Champions League once again the most valuable. So last night, yet more points added to the Premier League running total and things looking ever more certain to add that fifth spot next season. Man City going through their play-off will obviously simply push that further, as will Spurs and Man U if they win their games tonight.