Opta Predicts Arsenal v Chelsea: Declan Rice to score in 45/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

Following a trip to Old Trafford in their most recent Premier League game, it's another big one this weekend for Arsenal as they host Chelsea.

With both sides having looked like genuine title contenders as recently as Christmas, things have slipped a bit. But with nothing yet confirmed, both clubs have plenty still to play for.

Let's see where the value lies ahead of the match.

Arsenal worth backing at the price

This game offers an invaluable chance for Arsenal to keep their remote Premier League title chance alive.

As things stand, the Gunners trail Liverpool by 15 points and the Opta supercomputer gives them just a 0.59% chance of winning the Premier League. A win here cuts that gap to 12 points and, with Liverpool to play in their third-last game of the season, there is an opportunity to trim that lead further.

While it would be fanciful to suggest that any of those results give Arsenal a realistic chance of winning the league in isolation, Mikel Arteta and co. will use any ground gained as motivation to fulfil their distant domestic ambition.

Arsenal come into this in a rare period of fallow form, with just two victories in their last seven matches in all competitions, but it is worth pointing out that five matches in that period have come away from the Emirates Stadium.

The 1-0 loss to West Ham in their most recent home league game was undoubtedly damaging, but it was Arsenal's first defeat on their own turf in the league this season. The Gunners still have the second-best home record in the division (W8 D4 L1) behind Liverpool, having played a game fewer.

In contrast, Chelsea's travelling record is just the ninth-best in the Premier League (W6 D3 L5). They come into this match having lost five and drawn two of their last seven domestic away games, having failed to score in three of those.

Chelsea are also winless in their five league games against other teams currently in the top five of the Premier League, having drawn two and lost three.

They have also failed to win four of their nine matches directly after a Europa Conference League match this season, including the 1-1 draw at home to Arsenal in November.

At the time of that meeting, Chelsea were in much better shape - that match was one of just four occasions in a run of 13 league games leading up to the festive period that Chelsea dropped points, a sequence that saw them lose just once against Liverpool.

But Enzo Maresca's side come into this match having lost each of their last three Premier League away games, which is as many defeats as they had suffered in their previous 19.

Chelsea are also winless in their last seven domestic matches away from Stamford Bridge and have not won any of their last six top-flight matches against the Gunners, including a 5-0 loss last season.

It is because of the above that we're going to favour the Arsenal victory at a decent-looking 4/5 in the match odds market.

Chelsea struggle to make an impression

Chelsea have also lost the expected goals (xG) battle in each of their last four domestic away games (Aston Villa, Brighton x2 and Manchester City), implying that they did not create enough to win any of them.

They have also only scored more than one goal in only two of their last seven domestic matches, with one of those being a 4-0 victory against rock-bottom Southampton.

While it would be unfair to call Chelsea a one-man team, their loss of form and goalscoring difficulties have coincided with the struggles of Cole Palmer, who is without a goal in his last 10 matches in all competitions and missed the first penalty of his career last weekend.

Palmer has also failed to contribute an assist in his last 18 appearances, with his last one coming on 1 December against Aston Villa. It is difficult to argue against the fact that the lack of contribution from their star man - 70% of his goal contributions this season came on or before 1 December - has stunted their attacking effectiveness.

Against an Arsenal side that has conceded just two goals in their last six league games, it is not outlandish to suggest that they could keep out a misfiring Chelsea as well. BTTS: No is available at 11/10.

For Arsenal themselves, meanwhile, it is perhaps unsurprising that a good team who lack a recognised centre forward have been struggling to press home an advantage and create more opportunities when on top.

The Gunners have scored three league goals in four matches since Kai Havertz's injury. Even when they have done well going forward, it has been through an unsustainable level of finishing quality.

Their 7-1 victory over PSV in the Champions League last week came from an xG of just 1.91. They scored so many goals because of exceptional finishing from individuals, rather than being an effective attacking unit. It is because of this that it is hard to see a goal fest at the Emirates, with under 2.5 goals priced at 10/11.

Look away from frontline for Arsenal goals

While Mikel Merino has battled gamely as a makeshift number nine, he dropped too deep on the pitch in the 1-1 draw away to Manchester United to make any kind of impact.

The Spaniard had not scored in the league since his double in the final 10 minutes after coming off the bench against Leicester City last month.

With Arsenal's set-piece goals also having dried up of late - they have not scored any in their last seven matches, having netted 12 in the 21 games prior - it makes sense to look at alternative options for a goal.

One worth looking at is Declan Rice. The England international plays as a number eight for Arsenal and had more touches in the opposition box than anyone else (six) at Old Trafford. He also completed the second-most passes in the final third (36) and had more progressive carries (16) than any other player. Ostensibly, he dragged his side back into the match.

Having scored the equaliser for his club against United, it is obvious that Rice is getting forward more often than ever since Havertz's injury

Rice scored again in Arsenal's 2-2 draw at home to PSV on Wednesday to make it goals in back-to-back matches for only the third time in his career. His goal against PSV was also his fifth of the season, putting him two behind his career-best in all competitions. At 11/2 to score anytime, there is value in Rice.

Elsewhere in the individual markets, Martin Odegaard has recorded at least two shots in four of his last seven Premier League matches and should continue to contribute. He is 2/5 to do the same here.

Moises Caicedo has also picked up nine yellow cards in the Premier League - more than any other Chelsea player - including seven in his last 10 matches. He is 17/10 to pick up another yellow while, having won at least two fouls in nine of his last 12 league games, he is 10/11 to win two or more fouls.

Arsenal v Chelsea Bet builder