Serie A Tips: Inter to stumble and Napoli to march on | OneFootball

Italian Serie A

Simone Inzaghj's Inter have just knocked Barcelona out of the Champions League

After picking up a profit from last weekend's Serie A action, Kevin Hatchard is back with another trio of tips...

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Torino v Inter - End of the road for exhausted champions?

Sunday 11 May, 17:30Live on TNT Sports 2

After a semi-final for the ages, a 7-6 aggregate shootout with Barcelona across two titanic tussles, Inter are through to their second Champions League final in three seasons. It is a phenomenal achievement by coach Simone Inzaghi and his players, and the Nerazzurri have a genuine chance of beating PSG and lifting that famous trophy in Munich at the end of the month.

However, those emotionally draining matches come at a cost, and Inter haven't been able to quite balance their continental efforts with domestic demands. Back-to-back defeats against Bologna and Roma saw a three-point lead over Napoli become a three-point deficit, and in the Coppa Italia Inter crumbled to a 4-1 aggregate defeat against their old foes Milan in the semi-finals.

Now another tricky test awaits against a Torino side that doesn't have much to play for, but that has put together a nine-match unbeaten run at home. Paolo Vanoli's team have beaten Milan and drawn with Turin rivals Juventus in that sequence, and their last home defeat was all the way back in late December against Bologna.

I can't get on board with backing Inter to win this at 1.58, as it feels like a price that's largely based on motivation. If you look at Inter's last 10 Serie A matches that have followed midweek exertions in either the Coppa Italia or the Champions League, they have only won half of them. Benjamin Pavard is still injured, and star striker Lautaro Martinez was rushed back from injury for the Barcelona game, so it's touch-and-go as to whether he starts here.

Given the extraordinary efforts Inter had to make to beat Barca 4-3 in extra time on Tuesday, this feels like a huge test, and I'll lay the visitors at 1.58. Inzaghi's men have only won one of their last seven away matches in Serie A.

Napoli v Genoa - Hosts to take another step towards glory

Sunday 11 May, 19:45

Whatever you may think of Antonio Conte and his histrionics, he is a consistent winner. He has delivered the Scudetto for Juventus and Inter, and he won both the Premier League and the FA Cup with Chelsea. Although he has consistently downplayed Napoli's chances of winning the Serie A title this term, they are on track to finish top of the table.

Conte hasn't been as inhibited in the transfer market as he'd like you to believe, but he did lose star player Kvicha Kvaratskhelia to PSG in the winter window, and although the club flirted with moves for Manchester United's Alejandro Garnacho and Borussia Dortmund flyer Karim Adeyemi, the Georgian wasn't replaced.

One summer signing that has delivered in spades is Scott McTominay. The-box crashing Scotland international has been a revelation since arriving in southern Italy, he's had a local pizza named after him, and he's been dubbed the McTerminator. McTominay has delivered some huge goals for Napoli during the run-in, and has netted five times across the last four games.

Visitors Genoa are safe in mid-table under Patrick Vieira, who has made his team tough to beat and tough to score against. The Rossoblu have leaked just 11 goals across their last 12 Serie A matches.

Napoli have made a useful habit of grinding out low-scoring victories, and I fancy another one here. 19 of their 23 league wins have featured fewer than four goals, so I'll back Napoli to win, Under 3.5 Goals and McTominay to have a shot on target at 13/10 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder. McTominay has hit the target at least once in 15 of his last 18 games for club and country.

If you want to be even bolder, you can boost that price to 4.64 by backing McTominay to have two shots on target, something he's done in seven of the last 18 matches for Napoli and Scotland.

Atalanta v Roma - Ranieri's run to continue

Monday 12 May, 19:45

With both teams battling for Champions League qualification, this is an enormous game. Roma have moved level on points with fourth-placed Juventus, which is remarkable when you consider they were in a relegation battle when popular son of Rome Claudio Ranieri took charge. The Giallorossi are unbeaten in their last 19 Serie A matches.

Third-placed Atalanta are five points ahead of Roma in the standings, but their form has been hit-and-miss for a while now. They have won just seven of their last 18 in the top flight, and at home they have taken maximum points just once in the last nine attempts.

Atalanta are way too short here at 2.02, so lay them against a team that hasn't lost a league game since mid-December.

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