Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Interesting on Newcastle United ahead of Manchester City match | OneFootball

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at home to Manchester City.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Manchester City game.

“Newcastle have become very tame under Eddie Howe.

“When they roared to Champions League qualification they were fierce, energetic and horrible to play against. They are none of those things in their current guise – and were woefully exposed at Fulham last weekend. A result that had been coming for a while after some fine-margin victories where they had run away from their poor underlying numbers.

“Since November last year – a run of 33 games – when assessing ever present Premier League teams, only West Ham have averaged more expected goals against per 90 than Newcastle – that’s 1.83 a game.

“And their shots faced data is sending out alarm bells.

“Remarkably, Newcastle have conceded 10 or more shots in their last 26 Premier League fixtures and that equates to a shots faced per game average of 15.8 – the third worst record in the Premier League over that timeframe.

“That inability to stem the flow towards your goal leaves them mightily vulnerable to a proper shellacking from Manchester City if Pep Guardiola’s team are in the mood.

“It might sound glaringly obvious but the Evens on offer for City to win and Erling Haaland to score – a man who is averaging a goal every 53 minutes across his last 11 Premier League appearances – looks a winner in waiting.

“Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 Manchester City 3”

Always interesting to hear what the Sky Sports expert has to say with his analysis on Newcastle United matches and some good stuff there.

However, there are always other stats that he chooses to not highlight…

Newcastle United have played Manchester City six times since Erling Haaland arrived at the Etihad, home and away, all competitions.

How many of those six games has Haaland scored in?

In his third ever Premier League match, Erling Haaland and Manchester City were losing 3-1 at St James’ Park in August 2022, when up popped the Norwegian to score, with Man City eventually getting what was an undeserved draw. United should have had a clear penalty just before half-time, as well as other decisions going against them.

Since that day, Erling Haaland hasn’t scored against Newcastle. I know some of you will very much see that as tempting fate but it is just pointing out to the Sky Sports expert, a fact he ‘forgot’ to mention.

Of course, if Man City play at their best and in particular Haaland gets the chances and is on his best personal form, then Newcastle United could well be in big trouble.

However, the last three contests at St James’ Park have seen that 3-3 draw, the 1-0 NUFC cup win, then that very undeserved Man City victory in January, when leading 2-1 with 16 minutes to go, De Bryune magic off the bench produced a 74th minute equaliser and the brilliant assist for Bobb to score on 92 minutes. Eddie Howe was down to the bare bones and had nobody to come off the bench and help see out the win/draw.

Other stats worth bearing in mind…

The last 32 months have seen Newcastle United lose only six of 54 domestic matches at St James’ Park, three of those six against bogey side Liverpool.

These past eight and a half months since Manchester City cruelly won that January 2024 match, Newcastle United haven’t lost any match at St James’ Park.

The last ten Premier League home games since that 3-2 loss, have seen Newcastle score 27 goals in the 10 games.

The Sky Sports expert can quote all the other stats he wants BUT these other stats are equally as valid. Plus, the vast majority of these shots that Newcastle have faced, have been from distance.

Even against Man City, Newcastle have scored those six goals in their last games at SJP against them.

The evidence of these handful of games is nowhere near enough to be writing off Eddie Howe and Newcastle United just yet. Especially when they have still found a way to win four and draw one of the six played so far.

Newcastle United need to play well today BUT that is far from impossible. Plus, Eddie Howe now has decent quality reinforcements to bring off the bench, which wasn’t the case in January.

Newcastle United upcoming match schedule, confirmed to end of November:

Saturday 28 September 2024 – Newcastle v Man City (12.30 pm) TNT Sports

Tuesday 1 October 2024 – AFC Wimbledon v Newcastle (7.45pm) Sky Sports+ (To be played at St James’ Park)

Saturday 5 October – Everton v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 19 October – Newcastle v Brighton (3pm)

Sunday 27 October – Chelsea v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

W/C Monday 28 October – AFC Wimbledon or Newcastle v Chelsea

Saturday 2 November – Newcastle v Arsenal (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports