Will Chelsea qualify for the Champions League? Points prediction as top-four race assessed | OneFootball

A look at how Chelsea and their rivals are stacking up ahead of the run-in

Chelsea are fourth in the Premier League after losing 1-0 at Arsenal on Sunday

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Your matchday briefing on Chelsea, featuring team news and expert analysis from Malik Ouzia

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The season’s final international break arrives with Chelsea’s Champions League hopes hanging in the balance following Sunday’s 1-0 defeat to Arsenal.

From there, though, things get tight, with just five points separating the next seven teams all the way down to Bournemouth in tenth.

The performances of English clubs in European competition this season mean five Premier League sides are highly likely - but not yet certain - to qualify for the Champions League next term and Chelsea can themselves help ensure as much with their progress in the Conference League.

Even so, the race looks set to be a fierce one. Here’s how the contenders stack up heading into the run-in…

Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea are in a fight with seven other teams to qualify for the Champions League

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Second in the table in mid-December, Chelsea looked well on track for Champions League football but have dropped off badly over the last three months.

They have continued to pick up points with home wins over four of the bottom five since late-January, but have not won away from home in the league in seven games.

Of the other contenders, Brighton are in comfortably the best form. Saturday’s fine 2-2 draw away at Manchester City ended a run of six straight wins across competitions, which began with back-to-back victories over Chelsea.

The rest have been strikingly inconsistent in recent weeks, with Nottingham Forest the only other side not to have lost one of their last two games before the international break. Bournemouth look in most danger of running out of steam, having not won in four.

Fixtures

Chelsea’s run-in includes four awkward away fixtures against west London rivals Brentford and Fulham, as well as Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. The latter is on the final day of the season and could be crucial to the top four (or five) race.

Given their struggles on the road, Enzo Maresca has already admitted that he expects to have to rely on results at Stamford Bridge, where the Blues still have to host Liverpool (on what could yet prove their coronation day) but otherwise face four teams in the bottom eight.

Chelsea face Tottenham in their next Premier League game on April 3

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On paper, Manchester City look to have the easiest run-in, with Pep Guardiola’s side not due to face any of the current top seven again this term.

Newcastle have the advantage of a game in hand over each of their rivals and would go fourth by winning it, but play their three hardest games - against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Brighton - away from home.

Fulham, meanwhile, have the toughest schedule, including back-to-back games against Arsenal and Liverpool after the international break, as well as Man City at home on the final day.

Distractions

Part of Chelsea’s puzzle will be navigating the latter stages of the Conference League, with Maresca not blessed with the same squad depth as earlier in the season, though the forecast returns of Noni Madueke and Nicolas Jackson after the international break should help.

Interestingly, Newcastle are the only one of the eight contenders who are not still competing on at least one other front this season, and with the Carabao Cup secured can now focus solely on the Premier League.

Fulham, Forest, Brighton, Bournemouth and Manchester City are all still in a wide-open FA Cup, as are Aston Villa who, as Champions League quarter-finalists, are the only side in the country still in three major competitions.

That may not be ideal for their top-four hopes, since Unai Emery’s side have struggled in their post-European league fixtures this season and face a vital game against Newcastle straight after the second leg of their Champions League clash with PSG.

What do Chelsea need?

Opta’s supercomputer prediction gives Chelsea only slightly better than a one-in-four chance of finishing inside the top four this season. However, assuming five English teams get Champions League football, the Blues’s chance rises significantly to 48 per cent.

Nottingham Forest are now considered an 85 per cent chance of finishing in the top five, while Man City (78.3 per cent) and Newcastle (52.3 per cent) are both rated as more likely than Maresca’s men.

Finishing fifth last season would have required at least 64 points (Tottenham did it with 66 but Chelsea were sixth on only 63) and that figure would have been enough to do likewise in all but one of the previous five campaigns.

To reach that mark this season, Chelsea would need 15 points - so five wins - from their final nine matches.