CorSport: Conceicao and Motta at risk – Milan and Juventus face ‘dangerous bottleneck’ | OneFootball

At present it seems certain that one of either AC Milan or Juventus will miss out on the Champions League, possibly both, and that will cause major changes.

As Corriere dello Sport writes this morning, the success of LaLiga teams in European competitions are in fact closing the door on Serie A sides. The Spanish league is establishing a gap in second place in the coefficient rankings, and so there will be no fifth place UCL qualification for the Italians.

At the moment, the possibility that both Milan and Juve miss out cannot be ruled out, something that has never happened since the competition was called the Champions League. To find a similar situation, we have to go back to 1991-92 when one team from each country participated, in that case Sampdoria.

The Bianconeri and Rossoneri have won 11 of the last 14 league titles (nine for Juve and two for Milan), but are in big danger in the bottleneck that has been created for 4th place. In fact, Lazio, Bologna, Fiorentina and now Roma are also in the running.

Milan are eight points behind and today must beat Como at San Siro to avoid raising the white flag, but they could close the gap because Bologna-Lazio and Fiorentina-Juve also take place this weekend. Either way, Sergio Conceicao and Thiago Motta are under pressure.

It is often said that the ‘accounts Scudetto’ is now earned by going to the Champions League rather than by winning the title. This is demonstrated by the paths of the Italian teams in the 2024-25 edition: Bologna has earned €36m, Milan €59m, Juventus €63m, Atalanta €65m and Inter €100m.

In addition to the bonus for participation (€18.6m) and that relating to the final position in the big league phase, there is the money generated by the results in individual matches, those of the various steps achieved (playoffs, round of 16, quarter-finals, etc.), plus historical ranking and market pool.

The cases of Juve and Milan are emblematic: despite having both fallen earlier than they hoped in their campaigns (play-off round), with only 10 matches played they have earned a figure close to or slightly above €60m, a loot to which sponsor revenues and box office takings must be added.

There is a lot of money at stake, as confirmed by the 2023-24 budget for Juventus, which closed with €200m in losses also due to the lack of UEFA revenue in the season that they missed out due to a points penalty, costing them €80-100m.

The repercussions are also on the sporting side: going to the Champions League not only helps to keep the accounts in order, but guarantees continuity in competitiveness. Milan have participated in the last four editions, increasing its turnover, having been out of it for seven consecutive years prior.

The Champions League will determine the ambitions of the two owners; it will establish, for example, how much money can be invested in the market and also which coaches will arrive. Qualification will be vital to the survival of Motta’s project, but Conceicao seems destined to leave already.