Coventry City v Stoke City: No happy return expected for Robins | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Ryan Deeney previews Coventry City v Stoke City

Ryan Deeney looks ahead to the early Saturday clash at the CBS Arenaas Frank Lampard's Coventry City host Mark Robins' Stoke City...

Coventry City v Stoke CitySaturday 8th March, 12:30Live on Sky Sports

Welcome home, Mark

Mark Robins joined Coventry City in March 2017 with the club in League Two and left them seven and a half years later having fallen short in their bid for another push for a promotion to the Premier League.

He returns to the club for the first time since his dismissal this weekend, sitting in the away dugout as Stoke City boss hoping for a victory that puts more distance between his new club and the relegation zone.

However, it won't be easy. Robins' Coventry side were one of the better performing teams in the league but lacked a killer instinct. Frank Lampard has changed that and they are now in the top six of the Championship.

Does Robins know his old side well enough to earn a shock result or will it be business as normal for the Sky Blues as they look to cement their spot in the play-offs?

Form book suggests Cov could Lamp Stoke

It's hard to back against the hosts.

Since the arrival of Lampard, Coventry have been the 4th best team in the division, sitting just shy of the current top three. And they are only getting better having won 8 of their last 9 league outings, the only defeat coming against leaders Leeds United, which is coincidentally also their only home loss under the ex-Chelsea boss.

Despite already being one of the better performing sides in the division, Lampard's version of this team are creating more opportunities per game than under Robins and their form has improved, yet they are slightly underperforming their xG. Meanwhile, they are conceding slightly more chances and have conceded at least 1xG in 4 of their last 5.

Stoke haven't got going under Robins, picking up 2 wins from 11 with both coming against bottom half sides struggling for form. Their underlying numbers have improved slightly over his time in charge but despite creating 1xG in 4 of 6 matches away from home, they have conceded at least 1.4xG in all six.

The Potters head into this one having collected just 3 wins against the top 15 in 22 attempts and 1 win in 14 on the road against the top 18, losing nine of those. Both teams have scored in 67% of their last nine matches and last six on the road.

Will EMC square or score?

If both teams are going to score, we may as well look at the most likely person to be involved.

Of the last 15 goals conceded by Stoke City, one was an own goal, one was a penalty, 11 of the other 13 were scored by somebody starting in the front four.

It surprised me that Ephron Mason-Clark is bigger odds to score or assist than a number of his team-mates, including Jamie Paterson and Tatsuhiro Sakamoto.

The ex-Peterborough United winger has five goals and four assists in his eight starts under Frank Lampard, including at least one in each home match he has played.

He has played 6.8 90's since a change was made in the dugout. His xG is 3.9 in that time while his xA registers at 3.8. He is creating at least 1xG and xA per 90 minutes played. And with knocks hurting Coventry at the moment, he is likely to get a strong amount of time on the pitch here.

Factor in this being a player that struggled to find form under the manager now managing his opposition, and there is every chance Mason-Clark turns it on.

Recommended bets

Back Coventry City to win and both teams to score @ 11/5