Devastating: just 1 in 6 pundits predict Chelsea Champions League finish – stats back them up | OneFootball

It’s been clear for some time now that finishing in the top 5 – rather than the top 4 – will secure you Champions League football this season.

Given Chelsea were in the top 2 at Christmas, it’s not something that really should have concerned us. Our qualification for that tournament should be very close to certain by now.

But instead the team have fallen away badly since Christmas, and there are bigger issues even than that. We have been losing games we should win, and that means our final 9 games of this season are among the most difficult of any of our rivals to make the top 5.

Not only have we got bad results, we got them against weak teams, and left ourselves in a really difficult position for the run in.

If you want proof of how tricky things could yet, you only need look at the Athletic’s piece with 6 of their writers looking at the run in.

Out of the 6 of them, just ONE picked Chelsea to make the top 5.

With the Premier League set to return tonight with a mid-week round to kick off the run in, Chelsea sit 4th.  But Newcastle and Man City are both widely upon as likely to overhaul us. They have the form, the confidence and the momentum, we have the hard fixtures.

To make things worse, the stats back them up. The table below shows the Opta-predicted final table.

Chelsea set for exciting run in by the stats

OPTA table predicts Chelsea to finish 6th, with top 5 needed for Champions League football.

As you can see, our chances of finishing in the top 5 are around 45%, so it’s close. But our most likely final spot is 6th, with a 22.7% chance.

This makes the run in very exciting indeed – win against Spurs on Thursday and this picture will dramatically change.