Devil’s Advocate: The psychological four, media ammunition and Ancelotti’s principle | OneFootball

In what is potentially the most critical week of a season that is threatening to turn into a stain on the club’s recent history, AC Milan are once again at the centre of a storm.

This is something that continues a running theme, sadly. Whenever a potentially campaign-defining stretch arrives, Milan never go into it with the kind of calm that inspires any confidence, and often the results are a by-product of that.

However, in the last few days in particular there has been an acceleration in the toxic overspill that has emerged, both because of on-field performances but also off-field matters that are adding fuel to the fire.

A fan base that already feels disillusioned at the course Milan are taking is on the verge of full-scale revolt as the alibis evaporate faster than the objectives for the season seem to be doing.

Additional ammunition

We come to the first keys: clarity and communication. Both are necessary in any crisis, but especially in one where the inherent nature of the industry is public-facing, and the stakeholders are the supporters as much as the investors.

Having already expressed doubts about Sergio Conceicao’s approach a few weeks ago, those concerns have only magnified with the passing of time. Milan do not resemble a happy camp right now and the coach – along with many others – has to bear some responsibility.

A long spiel about how damaging the defeat to Feyenoord was and how the Torino loss was an unacceptable follow-up is not necessary, the Italian media have already done that for us. That being said, the word to describe the overwhelming feeling would be ‘tense’.

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An interesting bit of news reached us earlier on Tuesday: Conceicao and Milan decided to cancel the usual press conference on the eve of the trip to Bologna. This is something that is not new, but further strains the already difficult relationship between the team (including coaching staff) and the fans.

This, the coach will not speak to the media ahead of the game at the Stadio Renato dall’Ara, a decision that has raised questions among fans and ourselves, given the importance of the game in the race for the top four.

In recent times, it has not been uncommon for the club to decide not to hold press conferences before certain matches. The tight schedule puts games close together and there is often a limited window due to logistics like travel, so in some cases it is to be expected.

However, in this case, the choice seems less understandable. After the last match played on Saturday night, the calendar offered a sufficient window of time for Conceicao to answer questions from journalists.

The cancelled conference comes at a delicate moment of the season. Why? The fans would have hoped for the coach to face the music, because it is his job to clarify the situation and confirm the presence of calm in view of the critical upcoming commitments.

Instead, Milan supporters have to settle for ‘protected’ interviews on official channels or non-football magazines to hear their favourites deflect the topic of the ‘crisis’, as recently happened with Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s interview with GQ.

The irony is that Ibrahimovic’s interview has generally not been very well received due to the fact it was full of bold declarations and once again held a mostly comedic tone, like calling Gerry Cardinale the ‘real Wolf of Wall Street’. Still, you can read it yourself and make your own mind up.

It is not yet known if there will even be a presser before the Lazio game on Sunday because of the two-day window between the games, which in the past has seen conferences not conducted. Depending on Thursday’s result, the obligation to answer questions may swell beyond any club control.

If the silence were to repeat itself, it could be a sort of undeclared press blackout, a situation that would deserve greater attention from the media. With a season that is entering its decisive phase, the dialogue between coach, team and fans becomes even more crucial to maintain high morale.

An exhausted group

Speaking of the squad, Conceicao has often hinted or outright said that there is a problem with the atmosphere within the squad and the environment that surrounds it. Further details are lacking, but it doesn’t take a psychologist to infer that the team are struggling with the pressure and disappointing expectations.

In this sense, the well-known concept of the ‘four C’s’ began to look like it was actually drafted based on Milan’s 2024-25 season. What are they exactly? Confidence, control, commitment, and concentration – all things the Rossoneri currently lack.

Confidence is defined as ‘the feeling of trust in one’s abilities, qualities, and judgment’, Looking at the Milan squad at present, there are very few players who are playing in that way, and the performance of the supposed stars and leaders is one of the most worrying elements.

Belief and morale is likely to be at a new low for this particular group after recent events, and what results from that is playing with tensions, fear, a lack of conviction, no leadership, absent character and being generally deficient in all the things needed to be a successful side.

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Mike Maignan, Rafael Leao and Theo Hernandez are among those having negative seasons and it extends beyond them. It becomes hard to succeed without the pillars standing strong, and the supporting cast have crumbled around them.

By contrast, a side with players full of positivity will often perform even above the sum of their parts. There will be energy, bravery, creativity, an element of risk-taking in the right moments and a warrior-like mentality that is again often necessary to win.

Commitment is a more difficult state of mind to define, because it is uncomfortable to level the accusation that certain players are not trying. However, it would not be remiss to remark that this isn’t a group that are running through brick walls for each other to achieve objectives.

Psychology is a difficult beast to tame and especially in sport. When a team is winning game and objectives get closer it is easy to remain at 100% commitment, but after a few negative results and the finish line becoming further and further away the risk of spiralling becomes much larger.

We are seeing this play out. Virtually throughout 2024-25 Milan have been behind the pace when it comes to achieving targets, especially looking at the race for top four specifically, and the constant treading of water becomes exhausting, so now the sinking comes.

The third C is concentration, or ‘the action or power of focusing one’s attention or mental effort’. This very much applies to Milan in the sense that it has often been lacking at pivotal points within games and thus within the crossroads of the campaign.

The Diavolo have committed repeated cardinal sins to compromise games, from Maignan howlers to needless red cards and an inability to control proceedings by playing an adequate first half. Something suggests the level of attention are not there, as the Feyenoord and Torino games prove perfectly.

A functional team simply does not commit the amount of errors – both individual and collective – that Milan have this season. Concentration is not just an on-field quality either because so much feeds into it: preparation in training, limiting distractions and making the right choices away from football altogether.

Finally, there is control, more specifically ‘the ability to restrain oneself especially in difficult situations. This is arguably (and it really is arguably) the quality out of the four that the Rossoneri have lacked the most in the torrid run.

All of the events where the club, management, coach and/or players did not seem fully in control have already been spoken about at length and there are almost too many to list, and definitely too many to individually analyse.

The shameful events range from the cooling break saga against Lazio to the penalty mutiny and Theo’s red card against Fiorentina to the contradictions in statements after the Atalanta defeat and the on-field spat between Davide Calabria and Conceicao post-Parma win.

What the above leaves is the perfect storm: a team without confidence, control, commitment and concentration, symptomatic of their superiors and nine points behind fourth spot in a campaign that was supposed to mark a title push.

Ancelotti’s principle

Another headache that results from the aforementioned is that the moments of brightness that emerge often burn strongly and fizzle out just as quickly, which leads us to the media-dubbed ‘Fantastic Four’.

The winter mercato was generally hailed as a huge success as the directors leaned into creating a strong attack, signing Joao Felix and Santiago Gimenez to play between Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao.

Other gaps in the squad such as a defensive midfielder and a proper deputy left-back went untouched, but not to worry because Conceicao (a predominantly defensively-minded coach) now had an attack to blow teams away.

The ‘Fab Four’ have become the ‘Flop Four’, combining for just one goal in 168 minutes when playing on the field together, and that was Gimenez’s from one yard out in the return leg against Feyenoord, a game that ended with elimination anyway.

This brings us to a fascinating interview that Carlo Ancelotti did with Corriere dello Sport three years ago, therefore before even his most recent successes.

“Victories and titles are the unit of measurement of a coach’s work. Profit influences times and careers, it’s like that in all sectors. It’s clear that by playing well it’s easier to get results. I enjoy it when I win. In any case, I don’t fall into any subcategory,” he said.

“The good coach is the one who adapts the game to the characteristics of the players. If I have Modric and Kroos I can’t expect to do high pressing. I’d be an idiot if with a striker like Vinicius, who has a motor under his feet, I didn’t rely on the counter-attack.

“I’ll give you one last example: if I have Ronaldo in front of me I study how to get the ball to him often, I don’t ask him to exhaust himself by tracking back. It’s the same with Ibra. There are two types of players: those who make a difference and those who have to run.

“Conte must have said that, and if he didn’t it’s fine too. I’ve never cultivated an ideology like Guardiolismo, Sarrismo. My creed is team identity.”

The quote in bold is what really sticks out, especially in this Milan squad who have game-breakers on the left side in Leao and Theo. The big issue is that, in their current state of poor form, they are not making the difference and they are not running.

Conceicao has tried hard to get his compatriot to do more on the defensive end but no matter what hardline approach comes from any coach it seems to fall on deaf ears, and the current tactical arrangement isn’t getting the best out of him.

There had been a lot of emphasis on finally finding the right balance, and a sustainable way of winning. In fact, there were many reasons for Conceicao to not use all four forwards at the same time from minute one.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

For example, it has been well established that Pulisic is not at his best physically and hasn’t been since the Supercoppa Italiana in Saudi Arabia. Then, Leao switches on and off in games and Conceiçao has already limited his minutes somewhat by benching him recently or taking him off early.

Joao Felix started brightly but is showing exactly why Chelsea were eventually willing to sanction a loan, because he is about as clinical as he is consistent. Then, Gimenez needs quality service to score and while he has three goals already, that in itself feels like a miracle.

There are mitigating factors, such as the fact that most sides and not just Milan struggle to break down low blocks, let alone a group of attackers that have worked together for only 20 days. Time is needed, though as the games tick by Conceicao may become very tempted to shelve the experiment for good.

Nevertheless, what we are seeing unfold is the product of the mess outlined above. A dysfunctional and paranoid club, a mentally battered squad that are running through quicksand, plus a coach that isn’t really sure what principles he is shouting about.