Opta Predicts Man United v Arsenal: Gunners to triumph in 75/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

English Premier League

Opta have picked a big-price Bet Builder for Man United v Arsenal

It's been a fierce old rivalry down the year, and although Manchester United v Arsenal this weekend may not be the massive game it once was - in terms of league positions at least - it should be another closely thought affair says our Opta analyst...

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This weekend, we have got a renewal of one of the Premier League's big grudge matches as Manchester United face Arsenal. But with the two sides having contrasting seasons, let's see which way this one might go.

Hard not to favour Arsenal

Before getting straight into predicting who will win, it makes sense to explore the context of the respective seasons both Arsenal and Manchester United are having.

Though they would not be happy to admit it, this fixture takes on much less significance for Manchester United than the reverse at the beginning of December. To explore that point, let's take a trip down memory lane.

Following the 2-0 victory for Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium, United were 13th in the table but trailed the top six by just three points. Despite the defeat, there was renewed optimism at the club with Ruben Amorim having recorded his first league victory three days before, beating Everton 4-0 at Old Trafford.

Since then, United have gone backwards. While they appear to have staved off a relegation battle according to the Opta supercomputer, they also have no chance of making the top six and their likelihood of a top-half finish is just 5.1%.

As a measure of how they are performing, in seven of the last 11 previous Premier League seasons, Manchester United would have been at most seven points above the relegation zone at this stage and very much in a relegation battle.

The Gunners' respective prospects of domestic success aren't much better, though externally they will tell you they are still fighting for a title they currently trail by 13 points - the Opta supercomputer gives them just a 1.7% chance of doing so. Any lingering hopes of silverware for both teams, then, are on the continent, but that does not mean this fixture will be any less keenly contested.

Despite that, the difference between the two teams is currently stark, with Arsenal currently 32 places above United in the Opta Power Rankings. It is because of this gap between the two that the visitors have to be favoured in the win/draw/win market at 7/10. Across all 10 Premier League fixtures this weekend, the Gunners are seen as the most likely away winners by the supercomputer.

Manchester United come into this game with just three victories in their last 11 league games, with two of those coming against two of the current bottom three. Their home record in the Premier League is just the 12th-best in the division and they have lost more games than they have won at Old Trafford (W6 D1 L7).

A penalty defeat to Fulham in the FA Cup last time out at home will have done little for confidence, nor will their record of having taken just one point from their four league games against the Premier League's current top three.

Arsenal have the second-best travelling record in the Premier League behind Liverpool, having won seven of their 14 away games (D5 L2). They are also coming into this on the back of a 7-1 victory away to PSV in the Champions League on Wednesday.

Tight affair expected at Old Trafford

But, even though we can expect the visitors to get three points here, a rout feels unlikely.

Arsenal have scored just two league goals and taken only four points in the three matches since Kai Havertz suffered a season-ending injury to leave them without a recognised striker.

The elephant in the room here is the Gunners' huge win against PSV in midweek, but dig a little deeper and they were the beneficiaries of some anomalous defending, goalkeeping and finishing. While this is not to say that Arsenal did not deserve to win, they scored with seven of their eight shots on target in Eindhoven. Even when you take into account their 15 shots on goal in total, Arsenal had a conversion rate of 46.7%.

For context, Arsenal have only had the ninth-most shots in the Premier League (373), with 130 of those being on target. Having scored 51 goals - the second-fewest in the top five - that gives a conversion rate of 13.67%, which is the third-best in the league.

Mikel Arteta's side also generated an xG of just 1.91, while the two teams were almost level for expected goals until Martin Odegaard made it 6-1 in the 73rd minute. So, while the scoreline was rampant, the performance was not so much.

What we can glean from the above, along with the fact that Arsenal have had the ninth-most shots in the Premier League and their centre forward difficulties, is that they are unlikely to run away with things again.

Manchester United have allowed the seventh-fewest shots (307) of any Premier League team so far this season, while just four of Arsenal's 15 Premier League victories have been by a margin of more than two goals. The Manchester United +2 handicap is too skinny to get behind at 1/3, Arsenal to win by exactly one goal looks appealing at 5/2.

Alternatively, under 2.5 goals is worth a look at 4/6 given that it has landed in nine of Arsenal's last 14 league. United also rank fifth for xG underperformance in the Premier League (-3.89), while their shot-to-goal conversion rate of 9.32% is the fourth-worst in the league behind Southampton, West Ham and Crystal Palace.

With the above knowledge in mind, 5/1 about a 1-0 Arsenal victory in the correct score market looks appealing - they have won by that exact scoreline on four occasions this season in all competitions.

Makeshift forward Merino good for another goal

Makeshift Arsenal midfielder-cum-striker Mikel Merino is a name that sticks out when looking at the goalscorer market. The Spain international has scored three goals in four appearances in all competitions since his positional switch.

Merino has had a total of seven shots in that timeframe, with five of those coming in the Premier League. Given that his total number of shots in the Premier League so far is 22 in 19 appearances, 22% of those have come in his last three league games. At 13/5 to score anytime, he is one to consider. Given the expected low number of goals, Merino could also be one to look at in a Build Ups bet against a goalscorer like Bruno Fernandes.

Leandro Trossard has also impressed recently in the league, having had two shots, created two chances and won two fouls in both of his last two league appearances. Given Arsenal's dearth of attacking options, he is likely to play a part here and is priced at 7/5 to win two or more fouls and 2/7 to have at least two shots.

For United, Manuel Ugarte has made his presence known in plenty of games, making at least two tackles in each of his last 13 Premier League starts. The Uruguayan is averaging 4.2 tackles per 90 minutes so far this season and is available at 4/79/5 to be given another yellow card.

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