Premier League Tips on Sunday: 15/1 Stalemate at Stamford Bridge? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Jimmy says back the 0-0 at Stamford Bridge

Jimmy The Punt is back for Betfair with his best Sunday bets across the football calendar, finding the value and best prices on the Exchange...

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Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle

The Premier League season is past the quarter way stage and Nottingham Forest sit in third place. They have lost the same number of games as Manchester City and Liverpool (1).

According to the underlying data they should be sixth, so it isn't like they are massively over performing either but who could have seen this coming when Steve Cooper was sacked 13 months ago?

Nuno Espirito Santo's stock was low when he arrived at the City Ground after a disastrous spell at Tottenham but by sheer luck, it turned out Nuno and Forest were a match made in heaven. Despite a points deduction, he guided his side to comfortably safety last season.

Forest's squad with the focal point of Chris Wood, the pace of Callum Hudson-Odio and Anthony Elenga, Morgan Gibbs-White's star quality and Ryan Yates tenacity was built to play Nuno's counter-attacking style.

The addition of Nikola Milenkovic at the heart of defence complements Murillo and creates a solid defensive foundation. Forest have kept clean sheets in 40% of their league games and only conceded more than one once.

It is their attack that interests me here though and the goalscoring exploits of Chris Wood.

Only Erling Haaland (11) has netted more goals than Forest's frontman this term (8). He netted a hattrick at St James' Park last term and should relish the opportunity to get one over his former employers. At 15/8 backing him to score anytime appeals.

Chelsea vs Arsenal

Chelsea and Arsenal square off in Super Sunday's feature game, they are currently level on points and seven off the title pace.

The pair fared quite differently in Europe this week. In the Champions League, Mikel Arteta was out Arteta'ed at San Siro while Chelsea thumped Noah 8-0 in the Europa Conference League.

Last season's clashes saw nine goals, the Gunners won 5-0 at the Emirates and honours were shared at Stamford Bridge but that was under the tutelage of Mauricio Pochettino. Under Enzo Marsca, the Blues regime is a little different and I expect goals to be off a premium on Sunday.

Excluding the 3-0 win at Preston in the League Cup, Arsenal have failed to score in each of their last three away games. The Gunners have only netted five in seven Champions League and domestic fixtures on the road all season.

Arteta should welcome Martin Odegaard back to the starting XI this weekend. The creative catalyst has faced a spell in the treatment room but came on for a short cameo at Inter and should be shoved straight back into midfield in West London. Not only is he a creative machine but highly influential to how Arsenal play out of possession, leading the press.

I just wonder about his match fitness as he has not started a game since August so even if Odegaard does get the nod from the off, he may not be able to stamp his authority on the fixture.

As for Chelsea, Marresca seems to be slowly moving them away from their chaotic approach.

August and September saw some crazy results, 6-2 at Wolves and 4-2 vs Brighton, but for the large part the Blues are more controlled. Excluding those two crazy games, the rest of Chelsea's eight games has featured three or fewer goals and half have seen under 2.5 click.

In Arsenal's away games, only their trip to the Etihad has seen over 2.5 goals land this season and although they haven't drawn 0-0 yet, they have threatened too several times.

Sheffield United vs Sheffield Wednesday

My window cleaner is a Blade, as am I, and I bumped into him leaving the house on Wednesday. He said he'd take a point on Sunday, I agreed and I'm sure most fans in Sheffield, red or blue would probably say the same.

Steel City derbies, as is the case with most, are not very nice experiences and the last three have ended without a goal. I expect another tentative affair at Bramall Lane on Sunday with goals of a premium.

One player the occasion will not be lost on is local lad and boyhood Blade Ollie Arblaster.

The Blades captain has gained Premier League admirers as he dictates games with his passing.

It is his off the ball antics that interest me here though. He isn't afraid to roll his sleeves up and get stuck in.

Arblaster has three cards to his name in 10 league starts (one vs Leeds) and the occasions could get the better of him in what is his first taste of a Steel City Derby.

His price to be carded appeals as he looks to stamp his authority on the fixture.

Burnley vs Swansea

Boring, boring Burnley.

No Championship team has conceded fewer goals (6) than Scott Parker's side this term and the underlying data suggests they have been good value for that but offensively they are woeful.

Exes of Parker will be all too aware of this, he is a manager hellbent on coaching individuality out of his players. The Clarets have only scored one goal in their last four games and eight times in the last 12 league games.

Swansea have also been struggling in the goals department but not for a want of trying. Luke Williams' side have racked up an xG of 18.7 but only netted 11 times, four of which coming in seven away trips. It is hard to see the visitors netting at Turf Moor.

There is also the similarity in styles as two like-minded, possession based coaches square off. Everything points towards a drab affair.

Between these sides, 53.7% of their 28 games this term have seen one goal or fewer with 21.4% ended goalless. At home all of Burnley's last three games have seen one goal or fewer and both of the last two have ended goalless. On the road, five of Swansea's seven games have been decided by a goal or less.

Under 1.5 goals looks great value at 9/4.

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