PSV Eindhoven vs. Ajax: Our Best Bet for a High-Stakes Clash | OneFootball

The Eredivisie isn’t always a go-to league for The Soccer Sharps, but this weekend’s matchup between PSV Eindhoven and Ajax demands attention. With both teams already knocked out of Europe and the KNVB Cup, this fixture could very well determine whether or not either club sees silverware this season.

The Stakes: Must-Win for PSV

Ajax currently sit top of the Eredivisie table, six points clear of PSV. Earlier in the season, it seemed like PSV would run away with the title, but recent struggles have allowed Ajax to overtake them. If Ajax secure another victory here, they’ll extend their lead to nine points, likely putting the title out of reach for PSV. That makes this match a must-win for the home side.

The Betting Outlook: Caution and Goals

Given the high stakes, this is not a straightforward game to call. PSV’s form has dipped, while Ajax have been solid, but not spectacular. Betting on a winner in this clash feels too risky, so we turn our attention to the goals market for value.

Historically, matches between these two sides produce plenty of goals. Nine straight PSV games have seen over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in nine of their last ten. Similarly, eight of the last ten head-to-head encounters have featured over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in eight of the last nine.

That said, given what’s at stake, we might see long stretches of cautious play, especially before the first goal goes in. The importance of the match suggests that neither side will want to take unnecessary risks early on.

The Soccer Sharps’ Best Bet: A Same Game Parlay

It’s hard to see either team keeping the other at bay for the entirety of the match. Clean sheets are rare in this fixture, historically, so “both teams to score(BTTS)” seems nailed-on. The odds on both teams scoring are fairly generous at -188, but we’re looking for a way to increase our value with a Same Game Parlay(SGP). Instead of tacking on the common “over 2.5 goals” to BTTS-YES(which could land as well), we’re adding “under 5.5 goals(or under 6 goals on some books).” This approach balances the expectation of goals with the likelihood of some restraint due to the match’s significance.

Getting to six total goals or more has been a rarity in recent years when these teams have met. Since 2018, it’s only happened twice, with most matchups ending in the 2-2, 3-1, or 3-2 range. By taking Both Teams to Score & Under 5.5 Goals at -125, we’re getting a solid price on a highly likely outcome.

SGP Bet: BTTS & u5.5 goals (-125)

Final Thoughts

This is a must-watch clash with huge implications for the Eredivisie title race. While PSV will be desperate for all three points, Ajax has the upper hand in the standings. Instead of picking a winner, the best betting approach is to focus on goals. Expect both teams to score, but don’t expect an all-out shootout.

As always, bet responsibly and enjoy the action!

For more European soccer betting picks, check out The Soccer Sharps podcast on The Hooligan Soccer Network.

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