Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals at Palace, Wolves and in Brighton v Man City | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and Football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back again to talk about his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

Crystal Palace v Fulham (Sat, 15:00)

Crystal Palace yet again underachieved last weekend when they drew 2-2 at Wolves thanks to a late Marc Guehi equaliser. They had 19 shots to Wolves' 11, and created 2.65 - 1.65 expected goals, yet still didn't take away all three points, meaning Palace have failed to win nine of their 10 matches this season.

As alluded to, their issues have been in front of goal having scored the second fewest with just eight. However, they have underachieved their expected goals by six! Defensively they have been solid, conceding 13 in their 10 games but again they have overachieved their expected goals by five!

So actually Palace's games should have seen an additional 11 goals meaning an average of 3.20 per-game. Under Oliver Glasner last season his 13 matches saw 43 goals (3.31 per-game), very much in-keeping with their underlying figures this season.

So far this season Fulham's matches have seen 27 goals in 10 games at an average of 2.70 per-game. Including last season, Fulham's matches have seen 143 goals at a rate of 2.98 per-game. With 17 of Fulham's last 26 matches (65%) seeing over 2.5 goals, it is a no brainer to back over 2.5 goals in a league that has averaged 3.20 goals-per-game since the beginning of last season.

Wolves v Southampton (Sat, 15:00)

A huge game at the bottom of the league as 20th takes on 19th in a real relegation six pointer. With just one win between them across 20 matches it's very difficult to be backing either side to taste victory. Wolves have lost seven of 10 winless matches this season and conceded the most goals in the league. Further back they've have lost 14 of their last 20 games, conceding 48 goals.

They cannot be backed at 10/11. They've failed to win their last 13 matches. However, the issue with siding with Southampton instead, is since they've returned to the Premier League they're only one point better off, having managed to win one game but have actually lost more than Wolves with eight defeats!

So it's got to be goals to be backed here with both defences shipping them for fun. Wolves have conceded 27 goals in 10 games at an average of 2.70 per-game and Southampton 19 in 10 at an average of 1.90 per-game.

Wolves have scored twice as many as the Saints, 14 to 7, but Southampton are the second biggest underachievers in-front of goal having generated six additional expected goals. Over 2.5 goals is prohibitively priced at 6/10 but if we also back both teams to score, it increases to a very attractive 4/5.

80% of Wolves' matches have seen over 2.5 goals, including the last seven, with them conceding 2+ goals in all of those. And 90% of their matches have seen both teams to score, with Wolves only failing to score at Arsenal, the side with last seasons best defensive record.

Brighton v Man City (Sat, 17:30)

Manchester City have lost three games in a row and question marks are being raised of their Premier League invincibility. To be fair, all three matches were away from home, they weren't easy based on the odds - 9/5 at Tottenham, 4/7 at Bournemouth and 21/20 at Sporting - and we've been here before at the beginning of last season when they lost three domestic away games in a row, so it would take a brave man to write them off at this stage.

They are clearly struggling with a few injuries right now, none more so than Ballon d'Or winner Rodri, as well as centre-backs Ruben Dias and John Stones.

Away against an exciting Brighton side, you wouldn't want to be siding with them to win given the current form, despite City having won 13 of their last 15 matches against Brighton in all competitions, but backing goals sounds a great plan.

One of City's issues this season has been their inability to keep clean sheets with just five across their 17 matches (29%).

Domestically it's even worse with only two in 13 games (15%) and over the last seven days they've shipped eight goals. Overall this season their matches have seen 54 goals an at average of 3.18 per-game, with 12 of their last 15 seeing over 2.5 goals (80%).

Brighton's matches have also been goal heavy, with 41 in just 13 games (3.15 per-game), with 10 of them going over 2.5 goals (77%). There's usually goals when these two sides meet, nine of the last 11 have seen three or more goals, with 41 goals scored an average of 3.73 per-game.

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