Vital improvement and the ‘eight-second rule’: Tactical analysis of AC Milan 1-0 Girona | OneFootball

AC Milan took a big step towards direct qualification for the last 16 of the Champions League as they beat Girona 1-0 at home on Wednesday night.

The only goal of the game came late in the first half through Rafael Leao, who collected a pass from Ismael Bennacer after the midfielder recovered the ball well and hammered a shot into the roof of the net from inside the box.

Milan missed chances to make it an easier evening for themselves, but Girona also had their moments and were inches away from levelling through Bryan Gil who was marginally offside when curling in a sublime shot.

The main thing was to get the three points and a clean sheet, the first under Sergio Conceicao. It is also a fifth consecutive win in the Champions League, rising to sixth spot in the process. Below is Rohit Rajeev’s tactical analysis.

Key improvement

A very positive thing rom this game was how much the pressing has improved. However, it wasn’t without Conceicao directing traffic from the touchline.

You can see how he is pushing the players forward asking them to press Girona high up the pitch, showing that they still require an obvious trigger.

Conceicao’s main principle is actually off the ball, unlike most coaches. Like Stefano Pioli, he wants his team to press the opposition high up the pitch with physical intensity. Pioli preferred a man-oriented approach while Conceicao prefers a hybrid of man and zonal.

Milan’s first chance in open play came from a Leao shot for which space was created by Youssouf Fofana. The Frenchman dragged his marker away and creating space for Leao to receive, turn and shoot.

A system game

Conceicao instructed Milan to build with two from the base, so Girona used a 4-4-2 formation to block the passing lanes of the two centre-backs.

Milan countered this and tweaked to a 3+2 formation to build out. Tijjani Reijnders dropped from his higher position while the full-backs stayed wide to stretch the narrow 4-4-2.

Girona were able to find space in Milan wide areas using third-man runs where they would pass inside and draw Theo inside and then have a full-back or midfielder make a wide run through the vacated space.

The ‘eight-second rule’ of Gegenpressing dictates that the eight seconds after winning the ball back is the best time to score a goal, because it takes that amount of time for an opponent to settle into a defensive shapes.

After Bennacer won the ball back in the centre circle, he scanned the field quickly moved it vertically forward to Leao, ticking off the principle explained above.

Set piece analysis

With each passing game we are beginning to learn a bit more about how Conceicao wants to organise his team from set pieces, such as the attacking and defensive corners below.

Data

Something we have mentioned in previous analyses is psxG (Post-Shot Expected Goals) or xGOT (Expected Goals on Target). Both are explained below:

➤ Post-Shot xG (PSxG) is calculated after a shot has been taken and generally considers shot placement, and if the model includes it, goalkeeper positioning in assigning a value between 0 (off-target) and 1 to every shot.

➤ The Expected Goals on Target model is built on historical on-target shots and includes the original xG of the shot but also the goalmouth location where the shot ended up. It gives more credit to shots that end up in the corners compared with shots that go straight down the middle of the goal.

The xGOT for Leao’s goal was 0.77, which means it was a very high quality attempt and that is why the goalkeeper had virtually no chance.

According to @markstatsbot Girona had an Expected Threat of 1.38 but could only muster 0.98 xG. This means that even though they moved the ball much better than Milan, they were not able to create good quality chances.

Where Milan excelled is in the duels category. Milan won more ground duels (10 vs. 9) and Aerial Duels (39 vs. 37) and this gave the Rossoneri that slight bit of advantage in defending their slender lead.

Once again Milan had only 1 goal from an xG of 1.39 which again goes to show they have a finishing problem. Maybe with all the rumours about Santiago Gimenez, the management have seen this.