Dan Kennett Analyses Liverpool’s Defensive Resilience Against Bournemouth | OneFootball

Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth: Distance Covered Podcast Match Analysis

The recent fixture between Liverpool and Bournemouth provided much to dissect for football analysts and enthusiasts alike. In a conversation between Josh Williams and Dan Kennett on the Distance Covered podcast, both contributors offered in-depth insights into Liverpool’s performance. With a 3-0 victory at Anfield, this episode focused on key match statistics, Liverpool’s defensive strength, and how Bournemouth managed to challenge Liverpool in unexpected ways. Below is a detailed analysis of their discussion.

Episode #031: Garbage Time by Josh Williams

The 31st episode of my new podcast, Distance Covered. Josh Williams hosts Dan Kennett.

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Liverpool’s Victory: Beyond the Scoreline

Liverpool’s 3-0 win against Bournemouth was not as straightforward as the score might suggest. As Josh Williams noted, “Liverpool posted an expected goals of bang on two, and Bournemouth actually posted 1.1, which is about double what most teams have posted this season against Liverpool.” This statistic sheds light on Bournemouth’s unexpectedly high xG (expected goals), which reflects their ability to create significant chances, even in defeat. Kennett emphasized that despite the result, Bournemouth were not passive: “Liverpool created 19 shots, and Bournemouth created 19 shots… you don’t see that very often.”

This symmetry in shot creation raises questions about Liverpool’s defensive setup. Williams pointed out that in contrast to previous seasons, Liverpool have allowed opponents more opportunities. “Liverpool faced 19 shots… that doesn’t happen often at all under Klopp,” he said, highlighting that despite this, Liverpool’s defense has been more resilient than the numbers suggest.

Game State and Its Impact on Liverpool’s Play

Game state—whether a team is leading or trailing—has a massive influence on statistics and performances. Kennett eloquently explained, “The most important stat in football is game state… game state influences everything else that happens regarding football analytics.” He elaborated that when Liverpool takes an early lead, they often drop off, allowing opponents more possession and shots. Bournemouth, for instance, registered many of their shots after Liverpool had already gained control of the game. Kennett clarified, “Bournemouth had pretty much 10 shots when we’d already won the game.”

Photo: IMAGO

This trend is not entirely new, but it has become a staple of Klopp’s approach this season. As Williams mentioned, “I’m a huge fan of getting games won early, and then taking your foot off the gas.” Liverpool’s ability to manage a lead and reduce risk has been a key feature of their season thus far, and this approach has contributed to their defensive statistics, which Williams described as “comparable with Klopp’s best-ever defensive performance season, 2018-19.”

Defensive Resilience in Numbers

Liverpool’s defensive statistics are a major talking point this season. According to Williams, “When the game is level this season, the shot count is 32 for us and 13 for our opponents.” He emphasised that this translates to a shot from the opposition only every 17 minutes, a remarkable feat. Moreover, when leading by two or more goals, Liverpool’s shot count remains impressive, with a ratio of 28 to 25 in their favor across all competitions.

However, Kennett and Williams were quick to acknowledge that while these numbers are promising, maintaining such a high level throughout the season would be challenging. Kennett pointed out, “We won’t sustain 0.5 goals per 90, but if we can keep it below 0.8 for the season, that’s Arsenal levels from last season.”

Bournemouth’s Tenacity and Liverpool’s Game Management

While Liverpool dominated much of the match, Bournemouth’s tenacity was evident. Williams remarked, “You have to give Bournemouth credit. In the second half, three down at Anfield, most teams would probably just hope for damage limitation… but Bournemouth kept going.”

Photo: IMAGO

Kennett likened Bournemouth’s relentless energy to Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United, which often pressured teams despite being behind. This forced Liverpool to sit deeper and absorb pressure, something the team managed efficiently. As Kennett explained, “If we break out, there’s acres of space for us to gallop into,” reflecting Liverpool’s ability to exploit open spaces when defending a lead.

Balance of Attack and Defence

Liverpool’s performance against Bournemouth, as analyzed by Josh Williams and Dan Kennett, demonstrated a team that can control matches while maintaining defensive discipline. While Bournemouth posed more of a threat than expected, Liverpool’s ability to manage game state, score early, and defend resolutely has been key to their early-season success. Williams summed up Liverpool’s form this season perfectly, noting, “There’s a lot to like in there… Liverpool are in a very good state.”

With defensive numbers comparable to Klopp’s best seasons and a squad capable of controlling games when necessary, Liverpool look set to challenge for major honors. However, as both Williams and Kennett agree, maintaining this level of performance throughout the season will be crucial in determining their ultimate success.