Key Numbers That Could Decide Liverpool vs Newcastle

Anfield Index

·26 de fevereiro de 2025

Key Numbers That Could Decide Liverpool vs Newcastle

Liverpool vs Newcastle: Tactical Preview and Key Numbers

Liverpool’s title charge continues with a crucial fixture against Newcastle United at Anfield. After dismantling Manchester City with a display of defensive control and set-piece precision, Arne Slot’s side must now navigate a different challenge—one that pits them against a Newcastle team that scores freely but also concedes heavily.

Dr Phil Barter and Dave Davis, speaking on the Stat Me Up podcast for Anfield Index, broke down the key metrics behind Newcastle’s recent performances and what Liverpool can expect from Eddie Howe’s side.

Vídeos OneFootball

Newcastle’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Newcastle have been one of the league’s most unpredictable sides this season. Capable of stunning attacking football but vulnerable at the back, they present an entirely different test to Manchester City.

Davis summarised their approach:

“They are a team that can score, but they’re also a team that can ship a lot as well.”

The numbers confirm this. Newcastle have scored 46 goals this season—matching their expected goals (xG) perfectly. However, their defensive record is concerning.

Barter provided the details:

“They should have conceded 39 goals, but they’ve actually let in 36, so they’ve overperformed defensively by three goals. But that’s not a huge margin—it suggests they are still vulnerable at the back.”

In simpler terms, Newcastle are giving up far too many chances, and their defence is not as solid as last season.

Key Threats for Liverpool to Contain

Liverpool’s defensive focus will be on Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, two players who have carried Newcastle’s attacking burden.

“Isak has 19 goals this season, and Gordon has 11 goal contributions—six goals and five assists. These are the two players Liverpool need to be most aware of,” Davis pointed out.

Newcastle’s attack thrives in transition, which means Liverpool’s midfield balance will be key. Barter noted that in recent games, Newcastle’s xG has been inconsistent, suggesting that when they are on form, they can create two expected goals per game, but when they are off, that number drops below one.

“When they’re performing, they’re hitting 15 shots per game and creating nearly 2 xG. When they’re slightly off it, it’s closer to 10 shots and less than 1 xG.”

This suggests that if Liverpool can control midfield and limit Newcastle’s transitions, they can significantly reduce their attacking output.

Who Starts for Liverpool?

After a physically demanding win against City, Squad rotation will be a major talking point for Arne Slot. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Curtis Jones, and Dominik Szoboszlai were all flagged as being in the “red zone” in terms of fatigue.

Davis posed the key selection dilemma:

“Does he risk Trent? If you don’t play him, you have to play Quansah, and then you might have a repeat of the away game.”

Liverpool’s full-back situation is one to monitor, particularly given Newcastle’s tendency to attack the wide areas through Gordon and Isak.

Further up the pitch, Slot may rotate his attacking options. Darwin Núñez struggled with his link-up play against City, so there is a chance Cody Gakpo could come in.

“Gakpo had a sub appearance, so he might start in the rotation,” Barter suggested.

Tactical Approach and Prediction

Liverpool’s ability to control space was key against City, and it could be just as important against Newcastle, albeit in a different way. Slot might look to win the game in the first half and then manage fatigue in the second.

Davis suggested:

“Win it in 45 against Newcastle might be the trick, not risk Trent too much.”

With Arsenal also playing at the same time, this could be a defining week in the title race. If results go Liverpool’s way, they could extend their lead to as much as 14 points, making the gap almost insurmountable.

Barter summed it up: