Nottingham Forest v Brentford: Back 13/5 Wissa to fell Forest and 9/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

English Premier League

Yoane Wissa already has 16 Premier League goals this season

Andy Schooler is keen on Brentford hot-shot Yoane Wissa heaping more pressure on stuttering Nottingham Forest on Thursday night.

Nottingham Forest v BrentfordThursday 1 May, 19:30Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

In the midst of European semi-finals week lies this important Premier League game.

Having sat in the top five places which will earn Champions League qualification virtually all season, Forest head into this one in sixth, knowing defeat would leave them playing catch up going into the final four games of the campaign.

They have lost three of their last four in all competitions, an FA Cup semi-final defeat to Manchester City on Sunday doubtless a deflating experience and certainly adding more pressure to the league run-in.

Nico Williams and Ryan Yates are back from suspension for this one, while surely Anthony Elanga will return to the starting XI after missing out at Wembley - an error of judgement by Nuno Espirito Santo given how the two halves (one without the Swede) played out.

Both sides chasing European football

Forest, who are 2.24 to win the game, would normally be happy to be facing a mid-table side at this stage of the season but 11th-placed Brentford are far from 'on the beach' yet.

They remain on the periphery of the chase for Europe and this looks must-win in that race - victory would take them within two points of eighth.

The good news for the Bees 3.45 is that their form is better - just two defeats in nine - while away from home they've won five of their last seven, losing only one (2-1 at Newcastle). Their last road trip brought a 1-1 draw at Arsenal.

Given both sides' need for a result, I expect a fairly open game.

Forest's xGA a potential concern

Forest have won praise for their defensive solidity this term but recent data is something of a concern with three of their last five games seeing their expected-goals-against (xGA) figure above 2.

Look at the season as a whole, and you still find that they should consider themselves fortunate to have only conceded 39 goals.

Their expected-goals (xG) number is up above 48 and the gap between the two figures is the second largest in the Premier League (only Southampton's is higher).

Brentford have both the attacking intent and the players to take advantage of that.

Back Wissa goal at 13/5

Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa both sit in the top six in the top scorers chart with 18 and 16 goals respectively.

In behind, Mikkel Damsgaard has contributed 10 assists, a figure only bettered by the outstanding title winner, Mo Salah. Damsgaard is a tempting 5/1 for another in this match.

However, it's Wissa I like here the most.

His move to centre forward following the sale of Ivan Toney has paid rich dividends both for the team and him personally. The fact that Toney (currently second top scorer in the Saudi Pro League if you were wondering) is barely missed by this side says it all.

The DR Congo forward Wissa has scored in five of his last 10 games, including his last two, and will also have happy memories of the City Ground having scored there two seasons ago.

At 13/5, Wissa looks a decent price to take advantage of any slackness at the back from the hosts to score again.

While talking about the goalscorer markets, it's worth mentioning something in relation to the first scorer.

This match features the man who has scored the most 'first goals' in this season's Premier League, Chris Wood, and a player who sits joint second in that list, Mbeumo. The pair are 9/2 and 15/2 respectively in the market.

Focus on shots for Bet Builders

For those putting Bet Builders together, it could be worth backing the Brentford forward pair in the shots markets.

Wissa has been a long-term gold mine for 3+ shots. That's something he's now landed in nine of his last 11 games, yet he remains around even money to achieve it.

As for penalty-taker Mbeumo, he's delivered 3+ shots in 10 of his last 14 and is an even bigger price.

The pair are well ahead of any team-mate for shots taken.

It's also worth considering Forest players in the same market given Brentford sit third in the list for shots conceded this season.

Morgan Gibbs-White was unlucky not to score at Wembley on Sunday as he managed three shots, something he's now delivered in eight of his last 13 starts.

His shot output is higher than top scorer Wood but that's not reflected in the odds.

Wissa, Mbeumo and Gibbs-White all to have three shots pays close to 9/1.

Opta fact

Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa have both scored in the same Premier League match 18 times, with only seven different pairs of players doing so more for a side in the competition's history. Seven of those 18 have been this season.

Recommended bets

1pt Back Yoane Wissa to score @ 13/5

Andy Schooler's P/L 2024/25

Staked: 29pts Returned: 32.49pts P/L: +3.49pts

2023/24: +4.54pts