Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Empoli – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

AC Milan return to Serie A action after their midweek trip to Slovakia and they will hope to take a step in the right direction domestically as Empoli come to San Siro.

Milan scored three goals, got three points and continued their push for the top eight in the Champions League, and yet the narrative after the Slovan Bratislava game was far from overwhelmingly positive.

The same defensive woes reared their ugly head and Paulo Fonseca is a man under pressure to fix recurring issues, something that he did acknowledge in a testing pre-match press conference on the eve of the game.

Game date: Saturday, November 30 Kick-off time: 18:00 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Federico Dionisi (VAR: Pairetto)

Team news

As mentioned, Milan are under pressure to pick things up in the league given that they are 10 points off top spot and even nine from the Champions League places.

The last memory for the team before leaving for Bratislava will have been the jeers from their own fans after the dire 0-0 draw with Juventus on Saturday evening, so there will feel like a sense of duty to put on more of a show.

In terms of team news, there are the three familiar injury absences. Luka Jovic had surgery on a back problem in the past few days, while Ismael Bennacer and Alessandro Florenzi are still recovering from their respective operations.

There were some worries about Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic following the midweek win as both of them were not at their best towards the end of the game, though reassuring news has arrived regarding their conditions.

The final bit of news is that Alvaro Morata will be back in the fold after serving a one-game suspension in the Champions League, meaning Tammy Abraham and Francesco Camarda are the other two striker options.

At the time of publishing, there are still some doubts about the team that Fonseca will name for the game. MilanNews believe that Mike Maignan will have a defensive line of Emerson Royal, Matteo Gabbia, Fikayo Tomori and Theo Hernandez ahead of him.

Doubts persist as always about the centre-back pairing that will be used given the consistent rotation this season, but one pairing that seems certain is Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders in midfield.

Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao and Alvaro Morata all appear fairly sure of a spot in the attack, but the question mark is about where Pulisic and Morata will play.

Should the American be used as a playmaker, the Spanish striker would go up front and Samuel Chukwueze would be on the right. Morata though could play behind Tammy Abraham, putting Pulisic back on the right.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Leao; Morata.

The opponents

Last season saw Empoli avoid relegation in dramatic circumstances, finishing one point above the drop zone as Frosinone went down instead of them.

The Tuscan side went through three head coaches: Paolo Zanetti until September 19, Aurelio Andreazzoli until January 15 and then Davide Nicola until the end of the season.

They began the campaign with five straight defeats in which they didn’t score and conceded 13, and they went on another couple of long stretches without winning. However, a 2-1 victory over Roma on the last day saw them get over the line.

Nicola went to Cagliari and thus another managerial appointment was needed. Empoli turned to Roberto D’Aversa, formerly of Lecce and Sampdoria.

They generated around €10m in sales from the departures of Sebastian Walukiewicz to Torino, Sebastiano Luperto to Cagliari and Samuele Angori to Pisa.

However, they didn’t spend a penny on transfer fees. Tino Anjorin came from Chelsea on a free, while Federico Brancolini signed on a Bosman from Lecce. Lorenzo Colombo (from Milan) and Sebastiano Esposito (from Inter) joined on loan.

The list of loanees goes on with Mattia Viti, Pietro Pellegri, Saba Sazonov, Ola Solbakken, Junior Sambia, Mattia De Sciglio and Devis Vasquez (also from Milan). Pellegri and De Sciglio, of course, are ex-Rossoneri players too.

The start to the 2024-25 campaign has been positive in truth. Wins away at Roma and Cagliari early on gave them some momentum, while a recent victory over Como and some draws has them sat comfortably in 10th.

Empoli do have some players to look out for, such as the ex-Milan duo Lorenzo Colombo and Pietro Pellegri in attack, Devis Vasquez in goal and reported transfer target Giuseppe Pezzella as the left wing-back.

D’Aversa has suggested that the sheer amount of absences that his side are dealing with makes it tough for them to get a result, but he is relying on the ‘beauty of football’, suggesting that a bit of luck might be needed.

Predicted Empoli XI (3-4-2-1): Vasquez; Goglichidze, Ismajli, Viti; Gyasi, Henderson, Maleh, Pezzella; Colombo, Cacace; Pellegri.

Head to head

AC Milan have played 36 competitive matches against Empoli in their almost 125-year history, with a favourable record of 21 wins, 11 draws and four defeats, a win rate of 58.3%.

Last season the Rossoneri ran out comfortable winners away from home in the first meeting, with Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Olivier Giroud and Chaka Traore all netting in a 3-0 victory at the Stadio Carlo Castellani.

The return game at San Siro was a much more tense affair, one in which Christian Pulisic scored the only goal of the game 40 minutes in.

The last time Milan lost to the Azzurri was in the 2016-17 season (1-2, at San Siro). Before that, it was back in October 2007, so the rare defeats are well spaced, but this should serve as a warning.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan have won six of their last seven Serie A matches (D1) against Empoli, keeping a clean sheet in five of those games, including the last three. All three of Empoli’s victories in their 32 Serie A encounters (D9 L20) against Milan have come at San Siro: in 2003, 2007 and the most recent in 2017.

➤ Milan have alternated between a match with at least one goal conceded and a clean sheet in their last 10 league matches; specifically, the Rossoneri have not conceded a goal in five of their last nine Serie A encounters, including the most recent against Juventus – just one fewer clean sheet than the six they recorded in the previous 23 matches plaved in 2024.

➤ Milan have failed to score in their last two Serie A games played at San Siro (D1 L1). The last time the Rossoneri went without a victory for more than two consecutive home games in the league was between February and April 2021 (four games), while the last time they went more than two consecutive home matches without scoring was between October and November 2017 (four games).

➤ Milan have 19 points this season (W5 D4 L3). Since the introduction of three points for a win (from the 1994/95 season), the Rossoneri have only finished in the top three once in 11 instances where they gathered fewer than 19 points after the first 12 Serie A matches – in 2012/13, when they finished third

➤ Empoli have drawn their last two league matches 1-1 (against Lecce and Udinese) and could end three consecutive matches with a 1-1 draw for the first time in their Serie A history.

➤ Empoli have drawn their last two away matches in the league (against Parma and Lecce) and could end three consecutive away matches in Serie A in a draw for the first time since December 2021-February 2022 (four in that case).

➤ Milan is the only team yet to score a goal from outside the box in Serie A this season; the last long- range goal by the Rossoneri was back in May against Cagliari (scored by Tijjani Reijnders). Meanwhile, Empoli have had the fewest shots from outside the box in the current league season (39, 12 fewer than Milan), but from those, two goals have been scored

➤ Milan’s Tammy Abraham has scored more Serie A goals against Empoli than any other opponent (4). Having scored against Cagliari last time out, the English striker is looking to score in consecutive league games for the first time since March 2022.

➤ Pietro Pellegri has already scored three goals (one in each of his last three matches) in nine games of this season – as many as in the previous two Serie A seasons, but in 42 matches with Torino. Since the introduction of three points for a win (from the 1994/95 season), onlv two Empoli plavers have scored in four consecutive league games: Francesco Tavano (2006) and Massimo Maccarone (2015).

Ones to watch

While the likes of Leao and Pulisic are in great form, there are several players under scrutiny. Morata’s domestic goal drought that has gone on for two months, given that his last in Serie A dates back to September 27, when he opened the scoring with a header from a free-kick in the 3-0 win over Lecce.

Chukwueze meanwhile is still on a mission to prove that he deserves to regularly start games, and then Theo Hernandez has not yet hit the high levels that are expected from him most weeks. Emerson Royal as the other full-back now has to fight off Calabria again to keep his place.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

Empoli are struggling to score goals, but Pellegri (three) and Colombo (two, plus an assist) have combined for most of their attacking thread this season. Gyasi – who Milan fans will know from that controversial Spezia game – has a couple of goals from wing-back.

There are four players who have started all 13 league games under D’Avera: Gyasi, Ardian Ismajili, Mattia Viti and Devis Vasquez. The latter three are all part of the rearguard, and that consistency has what has helped them keep goals out.

Prediction

Milan are under serious pressure to not only win this game but do so convincingly, otherwise the UCL places in Serie A will continue to remain a distant mirage. Predicting a clean sheet seems a step too far for this team at the moment, that being said.

Milan 3-1 Empoli