Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Genoa – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

AC Milan will be up against Genoa on Sunday evening, hoping to end their 125-year anniversary celebrations with a win. However, given the inconsistency this season, nothing can be taken for granted.

Milan managed to extend their winning run in the Champions League earlier this week, but only just as a late 2-1 winner was needed. As such, there is a lot to work on in terms of the attitude, otherwise a top-four finish will be difficult to reach.

During his pre-match presser, Fonseca stated that his brutal words after the Red Star were needed, seeing as he simply told the truth. There don’t appear to be any hard feelings between the manager and the players either, which is good.

Game date: Sunday, December 15 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Marco Guida (VAR: Di Bello)

Team news

Milan are heading into the clash with quite a few absences, as Yunus Musah picked up an injury in training and won’t be called up. The likes of Alessandro Florenzi, Ismael Bennacer, Christian Pulisic and Luka Jovic are also on the injury list – though Alvaro Morata and Noah Okafor have recovered.

Seeing as he’s been quite important lately, Musah’s injury is a bit of a blow for the manager and it has prompted a pretty big change for the Genoa XI. Indeed, the latest reports suggest that Mattia Liberali will be the starting No.10, with Tijjani Reijnders dropping down to the tandem after initially being mentioned as an option for that role.

In defence, Alex Jimenez is also set to get the chance (finally) as Theo Hernandez has been far from his best form. Emerson Royal, Matteo Gabbia and Malick Thiaw will complete the backline, with Fonseca clearly going for consistency. It must be said that it has worked well so far, but Jimenez’s defensive capabilities will be under the microscope tomorrow.

The attacking trio will also be rather attacking-minded, as opposed to when Musah plays, as Samuel Chukwueze and Rafael Leao will be on the flanks. Liberali isn’t exactly the most physical player either so how the Rossoneri will handle the balance will be interesting to see.

Although Morata has recovered from his minor injury, Tammy Abraham is in pole position to complete the lineup. He missed a big chance against Red Star but also scored the winner, as well as adding some much-needed energy and desire to the Rossoneri’s game. In short, all things considered, it is a pretty strong XI.

Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson Royal, Gabbia, Thiaw, Jimenez; Fofana, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Liberali, Leao; Abraham.

The opponents

It has been a rather tough start to the season for Genoa, sacking their previous manager Alberto Gilardino after just 12 rounds. They have collected just three wins in the opening 15 rounds and thus find themselves near the relegation zone, which isn’t ideal.

Patrick Viera has taken over the team and with one win, one draw and one loss, the jury is still out on the effect of his arrival. Milan and Napoli are their next two opponents, so these games will probably tell us a lot about where the Rossoblu stand.

Losing Mateo Retegui to Atalanta was no doubt a big blow for the team, even if Andrea Pinamonti has found the back of the net six times this season. Meanwhile, the most expensive signing of the summer – Vitinha – is yet to score his first goal for the club.

Photo by Simone Arveda/Getty Images

Other important players such as Albert Gudmundsson and Josep Martinez also departed in the summer, so one can see why Genoa have struggled a bit so far. Whether Viera will be able to turn things around is currently very tough to answer, so we just have to wait and see.

Of course, we would be remiss not to mention the mid-season signing of the former Milan man Mario Balotelli. He has made five appearances so far, all of them off the bench, but he’s still waiting on his first goal for the club. Perhaps we will see a gol dell’ex tomorrow…

Probable Genoa XI (4-3-3): Leali; Sabelli, Bani, Vasquez, Martin; Thorsby, Badelj, Frendrup; Zanoli, Pinamonti, Miretti.

Head to head

Milan and Genoa have faced each other 134 times across all competitions, with the Rossoneri prevailing in 61 of these. 44 have ended in draws, while Genoa have come away with all three points just 29 times. Since the second half of the 2016-17 season, Milan’s dominance has been rather clear.

The last time these two sides faced at San Siro, it ended up being a goal fest as the game ended 3-3. Alessandro Florenzi, Matteo Gabbia and Olivier Giroud found the back of the net for Milan, while Mateo Retegui, Caleb Ekuban and Malick Thiaw (own-goal) scored for Genoa.

In the encounter before that, Christian Pulisic and Olivier Giroud were decisive for the Rossoneri. The American scored a lovely goal in the 87th minute and after Mike Maignan was sent off, with no subs left, Giroud stepped up in goal and made a couple of crucial interventions.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan have lost just one of their last 13 league matches against Genoa (W9 D3); the Rossoblu’s only success in this period was in March 2020 (2-1), with goals scored by Goran Pandev and Francesco Cassata (Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the Rossoneri).

➤ Genoa drew their last away match at San Siro against Milan in Serie A (3-3), after having lost five of their previous seven (W1 D1); the last time the Rossoblu drew two or more consecutive away games against the Rossoneri in the Italian top-flight dates back to 1981 (three draws in a row on that occasion).

➤ Milan have scored at least two goals in eight of their last 10 league games against Genoa, as many times as in the previous 36.

➤ Genoa are unbeaten in their last five league matches (W2 D3), keeping three clean sheets in the period; the last time they played more games in a row without losing in the Italian top-flight was between December 2023 and February 2024 (eight).

➤ Milan have kept a clean sheet in five of their seven home Serie A matches this season; the last time the Rossoneri recorded more clean sheets after the first eight home games played in the Italian top flight was in 2002/03 (seven on that occasion).

➤ Genoa won each of their last two Serie A away games without conceding any goal; the last time they found three successes in a row away from home in the competition was in November 2014, while the last time they recorded three consecutive away clean sheets was in February 2021.

➤ All of Milan’s last 12 Serie A goals have been scored from open play, the last time the Rossoneri recorded a longer run of goals in the competition without scoring one from a set piece was between October 2022 and January 2023 (14).

➤ Since Patrick Vieira started managing Genoa, they record an average of 447 passes, 13 shots taken and 10.3 shots conceded per game – all better averages than in the first 12 games of the current tournament under the management of Alberto Gilardino (326, 10.9 and 14.3 respectively).

➤ Genoa are, alongside Udinese, one of the two teams that Milan’s Rafael Leão has faced at least five times in Serie A without being involved in more than one goal (only one goal for him against this opponent); the Portuguese player has been involved in three goals in his last four league appearances (all played as starter), just one less than he did in his first nine games played in the current tournament.

➤ Mario Balotelli could return to play at San Siro in Serie A more than eight years after the last time (14 May 2016, Milan-Roma); the Genoa player did not score in the three matches against Milan in the Italian top-flight (all as a substitute) and in this tournament he is one of the six forwards with at least five appearances without having a shot on target (along with Gabrielloni, Vignato, Maric, Arnautovic and Felici).

Ones to watch

For Milan, all eyes will certainly be on the youngsters: Alex Jimenez and Mattia Liberali. The former made his debut already last season and has been an incredibly important player for the Futuro side. Considering the poor form of Theo Hernandez, it’s certainly the right decision to start the Spaniard.

As for Liberali, he looked very promising during the pre-season in the United States and Fonseca seemingly believed in him a lot. Tomorrow will be the debut, though, so it took longer than most expected but it’s very nice to see it happening finally.

Photos by AC Milan

Taking a look at Genoa, the midfielder Morten Frendrup is one to keep an eye on. He has been linked with a January move to Milan given his defensive abilities, and eagerness to work hard for the team, so analysing how he deals with the Rossoneri man will be interesting.

Andrea Pinamonti is another one that Milan will have to keep at bay. He might not always be the most prolific striker, but he’s strong, relatively fast and has the size to cause issues. On a good day, he also has a nice finish.

Prediction

It probably won’t be an easy game for Milan, especially considering their mentality issues against smaller sides, but the feeling is still that they will prevail. Fonseca’s men have been strong at home and that trend should continue tomorrow.

Then, of course, there is a little bit more uncertainty involved with Jimenez and Liberali starting. Not that they are bad players, but the defensive duties for the Spaniard and the physical battles for the Italian must be monitored.

AC Milan 2-0 Genoa