Football League World
·1 November 2024
Football League World
·1 November 2024
Burnley have a clear issue they must resolve in January to aid their promotion hopes
Burnley’s attempts to gain promotion to the Premier League at the first attempt are going well despite a clear lack of a consistent goalscorer.
Scott Parker’s side are second in the Championship table but Josh Brownhill has the most goals to his name in the entire squad (five) from midfield.
The Clarets face stiff competition for a top two spot, but they currently occupy second behind Sunderland, with five points separating them.
Burnley should be very encouraged by the start they’ve made, all things considered, with Parker living up to the promise his CV suggested, having previously gained promotions with Fulham and Bournemouth.
But their hopes of a top two finish by May could rest on their action in January, as it is becoming increasingly clear that a striker that is ruthless in front of goal will be needed to support the goals currently coming from Brownhill.
After the opening 12 games, Burnley have scored a total of 17 in the league, which is fewer than only Sunderland, Leeds United and Norwich City (all stats from Fbref).
The Lancashire outfit have an xG total of 11.8, meaning they’re also over-performing expectations in front of goal.
However, being fourth in the goals for column might not be enough when they are going up against the likes of Leeds and Sunderland.
Both clubs have multiple players that can step up with a big moment or score that crucial goal, whereas Burnley quite clearly do not.
Wilson Isidor has proven a revelation, while Sunderland also have Jobe Bellingham, Chris Rigg, Romaine Mundle and Eliezer Mayenda chipping in with goals, and Leeds have Joel Piroe, Largie Ramazani and Brenden Aaronson all supplying goals, as well as Wilfried Gnonto and Mateo Joseph. Even Norwich have the league's leading goalscorer, Borja Sainz, and Josh Sargent waiting to catch light.
More crucially, of the Clarets’ 17 goals, nine came in the opening two games, meaning they have scored just eight from their last 10. It’s also eight goals from an xG of 9.5, highlighting that those opening two games gave a false sense of how strong this team really is.
Players like Lyle Foster, Andreas Hountondji and Jay Rodriguez have not been in good enough form to sustain a promotion challenge, with the trio scoring just once between them in the league by Halloween.
Luca Koleosho had supporters excited after his match-winning goal away to Leeds in mid-September, but he has yet to find the back of the net since and that effort was a breakaway goal from a corner.
There's Zian Flemming, too, but he's scored the majority of his goals at this level for Millwall from a deeper No.10 position, not leading the line.
As their struggles in front of goal continue, it should become even clearer to Parker that an experienced goalscorer at this level is needed.
The winter market will be a crucial period, as securing this move could be the difference between coming second or seventh given how tight things are at the top this season.
Burnley have done well to keep picking up results, with their defensive solidity proving key.
However, Parker needs to find a better balance, as turning draws into wins will be needed in order to keep pace with the likes of Sunderland and Leeds.
The Black Cats have lost two compared to Burnley’s one defeat, but nine wins and one draw is far more preferable to six wins and five draws, even if Régis Le Bris’ side is more susceptible to a bad day.
Getting through the opening 12 games without a consistent threat in the final third has been positive, but keeping that up over 46 fixtures will be tougher and tougher, especially with so much firepower elsewhere in the division.
Parker has benefitted before from that elite firepower at both Fulham and Bournemouth (Aleksandar Mitrovic and Dominic Solanke), and he more than anyone else will know the importance of recruiting it in January to get Burnley over the line.