xG Philosophy: The detailed data behind Brentford's win over Crystal Palace | OneFootball

In tandem with the popular xG Philosophy account, Playmaker Stats is delighted to be bringing Brentford fans a new weekly feature on the increasingly influential 'expected goals' metric, or xG as it is better known.

Prior to the season, we ran through the three Bees goals with the 'hardest' xG from the 2023/24 campaign, but we can now sink our teeth into some fresh data after the west Londoners' impressive 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace at Gtech Community Stadium on Sunday.

Founder of the popular xG Philosophy account and author of new book xGenius, James Tippett describes the metric as a way to "strip randomness from the beautiful game" - and Brentford's opening Premier League win of 2024/25 was a good case study of how xG can provide a deeper understanding of the manifold actions between kick-off and the final whistle.

On first inspection, the statistics from Sunday's game might suggest that Oliver Glasner's Eagles were unlucky to leave west London empty-handed. In fact, Palace posted higher numbers than Brentford across pretty much the full spectrum of shooting stats, firing in more total shots (14 versus 10), more shots on target (six versus five), more shots off target (four versus three), and more blocked shots (four versus one) than their hosts.

However, as Glasner himself stated after his side's defeat, Palace “struggled with the pace [Brentford] had in their offence and in the last ball in our attacking situations", and the xG data supports the Austrian's post-match analysis.

Brentford's 'xG On Target' numbers (also known as post-shot xG) against the Eagles were impressive and reflected the quality chance creation and cutting edge shown by Thomas Frank's side in front of goal. Across the game as a whole, the Bees generated 3.30 xG On Target - meaning they shot very well and were clinical in their finishing.

Bryan Mbeumo opened the scoring for the Bees and his effort showcased the home side's ruthlessness. The Cameroon international had plenty to do when he drove into the box off the right flank, but he bent a low finish past Dean Henderson in Palace's goal after escaping the attentions of England centre-back Marc Guéhi. The winger's finish carried a low xG of 0.10(xG) to underline the fact he made a difficult goal look simple.

Yoane Wissa, the top scorer for the Bees last season with 12 goals, became the first Premier League player since Riyad Mahrez (in 2021) to score and assist in three consecutive top-flight games and his match-winner against Palace carried a much higher expected goals rating of 0.85(xG), with the DR Congo forward in the right place at the right time to earn himself a tap-in.

Palace, in contrast, generated 1.19 xG On Target and didn't score from any of their shots; Ethan Pinnock's own goal in the 56th minute fell outside of the xG metric as no shot took place.

Only Arsenal (56), Man City (53), Liverpool (49), Newcastle (49) and Chelsea (43) have scored more Premier League goals than Palace (36) in 2024 but, despite the Eagles having more shots, as mentioned, Brentford limited the quality of those efforts on goal.

Generally speaking, the Bees restricted Palace to shots from long range and, across the entire game, Glasner's side didn't create a chance worth more than 0.50(xG). A closer look at the numbers shows that eight of the Eagles' 14 attempts were, in fact, from outside Brentford's penalty box.

That said, Palace blanking from 1.19(xG) On Target reflects well on Mark Flekken between the sticks for the Bees - the Dutch stopper superbly clawed away a deflected Eberechi Eze effort in the second half to preserve his side's advantage.

Disallowed efforts from Eze (foul) and Odsonne Édouard (offside) evidenced the fact that fortune favoured Brentford at times, but the xG data suggests the Bees were more precise in both boxes and therefore worthy winners on the day.