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Christian Falk Fact Files: Today’s exclusive transfer round-up from Bundesliga insider Christian Falk, featuring Bayern Munich, Manchester United, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen and more

Ballon d’Or Rankings: Reaction from Germany

(Photos by Juan Manuel Serrano Arce, Aurelien Meunier & Carl Recine/Getty Images)

The Ballon d’Or was also a big topic in Germany. Harry Kane won the Gerd Müller Trophy and was present at the ceremony. Vinicius Jr wasn’t there – and we all know why! Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, former Bayern CEO, held a speech. Bayern are still very, very disappointed and angry that Jamal Musiala (21) wasn’t even on the list. Yesterday, there was a match against Mainz in the DFB Pokal and Max Eberl was complaining again, unprompted, about Musiala not being on the list. So you see how it works in Germany. They’re still wondering what happened because, for Bayern Munich, it’s very, very bad, as it is a big argument for other clubs to entice Musiala away from the Bundesliga (and its perception of being a “farmer’s league”) and bring him closer to the Ballon d’Or list. That’s not good for Bayern.

Regardless of expectations around the result, Bayern still sent Harry Kane and Rummenigge. That’s why, in Germany, it’s seen as impertinent and incredibly entitled that Real Madrid didn’t send their players because Vinicius Jr. wasn’t going to win. There are big arguments also for Rodri, who was the standout star of the 2024 European Championship. So everybody is wondering! Toni Kroos was the most highly-ranked German on the list (ninth place). In his mind, I think he thought he had a slight chance, though he knew in the end he wouldn’t win it. He said everything that has to do with the Ballon d’Or is over the top and exaggerated: “The Ballon d’Or is not important to me. If someone from Real Madrid wins it, I’m fine. Vini deserves it, Jude deserves it and [Dani] Carvajal deserves it, but I don’t care.” This is a shared feeling in Germany. Nobody cares about the award because the whole situation is just very strange.

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BAYERN MUNICH

We talked before about Newcastle not being a concrete option for Leroy Sane because they’re not playing Champions League football at the moment (and look unlikely to in future, at this current stage). However, there are fresh rumours around Arsenal – we heard that Arsenal are interested. We should take this seriously! Already when he was playing at Manchester City, his family wasn’t feeling so happy in Manchester and always dreamed of potentially living in London. Arsenal, then, would fit perfectly within his and his family’s ideas. The first opportunity is getting a new contract at Bayern Munich but they’re not close and from January 1 he can of course sign wherever he wants. Mikel Arteta is thought to be very keen on him; he was interested last year when there was no chance to get him, but now there is a chance. The Gunners play Champions League football and Arteta knows Sane from his days working with Pep Guardiola at Manchester City. So you see there is a connection. This is the first big opportunity, besides Bayern, which could allow Leroy Sane a pathway back to the Premier League.

Bayern do not want to sell Lennart Karl. In Germany, we call him “little Schweini” (he’s playing a little like Bastian Schweinsteiger did). He has a very interesting agent in Michael Ballack of the Lucky 13 agency. That’s perhaps a potential link to the Premier League right there. In the end, however, Bayern Munich have to decide what will happen to the player. Inside the club, they prefer to make a loan move and perhaps to a club where he can get more minutes (which he wouldn’t get at Real Madrid). With that in mind, Ajax Amsterdam could be an option. There are also clubs in the German second division, which are closer, where he can get some practice. That would see him follow in the footsteps of Paul Wanner when he went to SV Elversberg and now he’s playing for FC Heidenheim in the Bundesliga on loan and getting closer to making the first-team squad at Bayern. That would be Plan A. But Ajax is also famous for educating big talents, so this could also be an interesting option for Bayern Munich if they get concrete.

We asked Max Eberl about Mathys Tel and were told that he’s blocking a move at the moment. He didn’t clearly say ‘no’. Everybody in the club sees that Tel needs more playing time. Now, both sides are at a point where they see a loan could be a good option. There is concrete interest from clubs in Germany like FC Augsburg, Werder Bremen, and Gladbach (who already knocked on the door in the past). If there is a good, concrete offer, Bayern Munich would agree to a loan. They would hesitate as far as selling him is concerned, as they think he’s a really big talent.

I’m not sure if there are big options available for Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting in the market. He always said he wants to go to another big club, but an offer didn’t come in the past. There were offers from Saudi Arabia; I know that he knocked on the door of Bayern’s bosses two years ago to push for a transfer to the Middle East, as the money on offer was really huge. At the moment, I think the offers won’t be so great, otherwise he would have gone for it. He and his agents are waiting for a chance in the winter in case a place comes up at a club where they need a striker. Nothing concrete on that front at the moment.

BAYER LEVERKUSEN

Sebastian Hoeneß is, of course, on Bayer Leverkusen’s list of managerial replacements should Xabi Alonso leave in the summer. Nobody knows what’s happening with Real Madrid and Carlo Ancelotti but we know there could be a domino effect if Ancelotti leaves and Alonso may follow him. Hoeneß would be perfect for Leverkusen; he’s already shown what he can do at Stuttgart with a side that is comparatively weaker to the Leverkusen team. He does have a release clause, which makes him very interesting for Leverkusen and other clubs. You have to keep an eye on what’s happening in Dortmund, as Nuri Sahin is also not safe at the moment. Hoeneß could be a candidate at BVB if they fire Sahin. The money isn’t particularly high for the release clause – he can change clubs this summer for €5-6m; that’s not a lot of money for a manager on the market. We talked about Manchester United in the summer (this door is closed at the moment), but I think Leverkusen could be the next opportunity.

Jonas Urbig is seen as the next big goalkeeper in Germany. You know we have a big goalkeeping tradition in the country, so it’s a big deal if we say he could be the next German national ‘keeper. He’s playing in Bundesliga 2 at the moment with 1. FC Köln, which is the only reason why he hasn’t been invited previously to the national team, as it would be a strange sign to see a player from the second league when we have many good goalkeepers from the top-flight. Everybody is sure that he is the big hope for the future, which is why Bayern have him on their radar. However, they’re not as close as Leverkusen, as there’s a big discussion going on in Munich around Manuel Neuer. If he doesn’t get another contract, the next option is Alexander Nubel. He’s on loan at Stuttgart and Bayern Munich can bring him back next year if they wish. They have the next national goalkeeper already under contract.

Leverkusen is another situation. The club isn’t far from Cologne, so it wouldn’t be a serious move. They will also need a goalkeeper next season as Matej Kovar (formerly of Manchester United) wants to leave the club in the summer (because he’s yet to nail down the No.1 spot at the club). If you see the age of current No.1, Lukas Hradecky (34), and compare it with Urbig (21), this could be a great option. So, at the moment, he’s a more realistic option for Bayer Leverkusen. At Bayern, you see how long they’ve kept Nubel in the second row, so I don’t think they’d do this again with Urbig.

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

To tell the truth, there’s not a lot going on with potential suitors for Emre Can, Julian Brandt, Donyell Malen, Marcel Sabitzer or Niklas Sule. Interesting players on the market, of course. Malen would have been sold last year if there had been a concrete offer. He’s not satisfied with his personal situation, which is why he changed agents twice, as they’ve so far failed to land him an exit from Dortmund. His main target is the Premier League, so if something gets concrete – he will be there! There’s a big discussion about Emre Can, as he’s the captain of the club and one of the top earners but has a bit of a problem on the pitch. However, there aren’t any close offers from the Premier League at the moment. Whether he stays or goes depends on the coach.

Julian Brandt is a brilliant player and would like to follow the example set by one of his best friends, Kai Havertz, in making it in the Premier League. That would be a big dream for him to make that next step. But no concrete offers at the moment. Niklas Sule and Marcel Sabitzer are both for sale. I do wonder why Manchester United didn’t make Sabitzer’s loan permanent given he was performing very well. He’s a player who ultimately needs to be on a pitch at all times to deliver as a leader; he can be a leader for any team. That said, he’s already 30 years of age, so it’s a bit difficult for him.

If nothing crazy is happening, Dortmund don’t want to sell Jamie Gittens in January. He’s performing very, very well and so they want to keep him beyond the summer transfer window of 2025. There is a price tag of about €100m – if someone is willing to pay this kind of money, they’ll talk. Otherwise, the German giants have no interest in selling.

LIVERPOOL

Sorry about Virgil van Dijk. I’m a big fan of him but he’s too old for Bayern Munich at the moment, as they’re trying to construct a very complex defence with Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae. They need fast players, which is why they sold Matthijs de Ligt to Manchester United. I think Virgil van Dijk doesn’t have this speed and kind of defending for this really high back four. I’m really sorry about this, as I’d love to see him in the Bundesliga, but at this point, I think Bayern Munich would be the only club in the Bundesliga that could afford his wages (and where he’d like to go), so I see no future for him in the German top-flight. He’s a player who could fit perfectly for many clubs in Italy’s Serie A, but the door is closed for him in Germany.

MANCHESTER UNITED

I think Real Madrid are still the favourites in the transfer poker for Alphonso Davies. They had concrete talks in the past, also with his agent, Nick Huoseh. Bayern don’t want to talk with his agent at the moment. They are interested in keeping in touch with the player himself but I think it’s getting more difficult when players have such options to leave as a free agent and go directly to Real Madrid. Manchester United have a chance, but he’s not really cheap. Davies wants a minimum of €15m a season and a sign-on fee of around the same amount. I’m not sure if United are willing to pay this money. You see when they brought in Noussair Mazraoui he was a really cheap option. I know that their first option would have been Jeremie Frimpong but he was too expensive (with a release clause of €40m for United). I’m not sure if they want to spend so much money on a left-back. Real Madrid really want Davies, so if United want to get concrete they have to pay this money. I wonder if other positions might very well be more important for the club. Alphonso Davies, I think, would be open to the move, but Real Madrid are a little bit closer.

RB LEIPZIG

Leipzig know they can’t keep a player if a Premier League side is interested. We have many examples in the past; Josko Gvardiol (Manchester City), Christopher Nkunku (Chelsea), and Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool). They always do the same trick. Castello Lukeba had a contract until 2028, so they’ve given him more money (he’s earning €6m a year) and had his terms extended until 2029. He now has a release clause in his contract worth €90m. So, if someone is willing to pay this, they can have it, but I can’t see anyone paying this amount of money right now. He has to get really good for someone to go big for his services in the summer window. At the moment, I think he’s safe at Leipzig with this “handicap” you could say. They want to keep him. I don’t think he’s a topic for the January transfer window. In the summer, if someone needs a brilliant defender and can pay this money, then I think things get interesting. Remember, they extended Lukeba’s contract because Real Madrid were concretely interested, more than any other club from the Premier League.