Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction: Magpies to secure EFL Cup final spot | OneFootball

Arsenal travel to Newcastle on Wednesday, in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-finals, needing to overturn a 2-0 deficit if they are to make it through to next month’s final (kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event).

Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon were both on target in the first leg as Newcastle won at Arsenal for the first time since 2010.

They are aiming to reach the final for only the third time in their history and the first time since 2023 when they were beaten 2-0 by Manchester United.

Having a 2-0 lead should mean they have one foot in the final, which takes place on 16 March, after all only two of the previous 31 teams who have trailed after the first leg have progressed to the final.

But, the last team to do so were Arsenal back in 1987. After losing the first leg 1-0 versus Tottenham they won 2-1 at White Hart Lane to level the tie before winning the replay 2-1 to reach the final.

Only one team has overcome a two-goal deficit and that was Aston Villa way back in 1994 when they overturned a 3-1 deficit against Tranmere Rovers to reach the final against Man United, which they won 3-1.

Newcastle to hold on

Arsenal will have to be at their absolute best if they are to reach their ninth final as Wednesday’s opponents have only failed to score three times in 30 games this season.

Football betting sites have Newcastle as the second-favourites to win the competition at 15/8, behind Liverpool at 11/8, who also trail after the first leg.

In addition to their recent form, which has seen them win 10 of their last 12 matches, the Magpies have also won their two previous semi-final home legs against Tottenham in 1976 and Southampton in 2023.

They have also won four of their last seven meetings with Arsenal in all competitions including twice this season.

They won 1-0 in the Premier League in November when Alexander Isak scored the only goal, but they have never beaten the Gunners three times in a single campaign.

Betting sites have Mikel Arteta’s side as favourites for the win at 6/5 with Newcastle at 23/10 and a draw at 3/1.

Following their 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City on Sunday, the Gunners will go into the game full of confidence and understandably so.

The defeat to Newcastle in the first leg is their only defeat in their last 21 games since they experienced back-to-back losses to Inter Milan and Newcastle in the league and Champions League at the beginning of November.

I expect Arsenal to win this one, as they will be desperate to reach the first final of the year but whether that will be enough to overturn the deficit remains to be seen. We can certainly expect goals.

You can get 8-1 on Arsenal to win 2-1 and 3/1 on both teams to score and the visitors to win but I’m going for the Gunners to win by one goal - meaning Newcastle will be the first confirmed finalists.

Isak has already scored twice against Arsenal this season and with the form he’s in right now, you wouldn’t put it past him to do it again.

The Swedish striker has 19 goals in 26 appearances so far this season including 14 in his last 13 games which is incredible.

Betting apps are offering 11/2 on him scoring first and last and 2/1 to score any time. He’s already opened the scoring eight times this season, including twice against Arsenal so can he do it again?

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